November is right around the corner, but this may be one of the most entertaining primary seasons in recent memory. The Democrat’s race to the bottom of the gubernatorial primary is fun, but there are so many other consequential races to watch. Here are the races worth watching and the simple questions that will tell us everything by midnight.
Statewide
Democrat Governor: The obvious choice and certainly the most consequential. Does Hong crack 40% of the vote, or does a late surge by Crowley make things interesting? If the far-left candidate hits that number it proves the progressive base still has real muscle and the party is drifting further from normal people. A key number to watch will be Roy’s and Brennan’s numbers and how much they fracture the Democrat voting base.
GOP Lieutenant Governor: Does Varnam pull enough out-of-state energy to stay competitive, or does Will Martin run a clean sweep?
GOP Secretary of State: Same test as lieutenant governor. Does the endorsed candidate win cleanly, or does the primary turn into another unnecessary internal fight? With a crowded field, GOP endorsed candidate, Nate Pollnow is the favorite.
U.S. House
First District: Who wins the right to lose to Bryan Steil? This primary is less about governing and more about who gets the privilege of running against a proven winner in a district that is less and less competitive the longer Steil’s is in office
Third District: Does Emily Berge make it competitive, or does Rebecca Cooke stay comfortably above 70%? A weaker Cooke margin would signal some distrust within the base about Rebecca’s chances of winning this swing district.
Seventh District: Is the Trump endorsement still king? Trump endorsed candidate Michael Alfonso has the wind at his back despite a tough primary and that endorsement will be tested once again. So far, very few have been able to thwart it.
State Senate
First District: Baney, Bittner, or Crivillion? The race got nasty at the end with personal attacks and drama, the usual sign someone is desperate and the leader is pulling ahead.
Eleventh District: Polce, Weidmeyer, or Schutt? I would argue this may be the closest of the primaries of the night. Another controversial primary with some light drama at the end. I expect a result closer to 50-35-15.
Seventeenth District: Does Jenna Jacobson hold off the field? Jacobson gave up her safe Democrat seat in the Assembly to take on political juggernaut Howard Marklein. Except Jacobson has a contested primary of her own and there is word that it might be closer than expected. Despite this, some argue that Jacobson might be the better Democrat to face due to her partisan record compared to Marklein’s bipartisan streak.
Twenty-Fifth District: Sapic or Severson? A unique situation as both Sapik and Severson are former Assembly members and both boast endorsements from prominent people. This heavily rural district is tough to gauge and one that could be surprising.
State Assembly
Eight Assembly District: Sylvia Ortiz-Velez versus the establishment pick: Can she pull the upset, or does the machine still hold? The Democrat recently spent $100,000 against her, but will it be enough in one of the lowest turnout districts in the state?
Ninth Assembly District: Does Priscilla Prado fend off the challenge Ortiz-Velez helped recruit? A loss by Prado would be a major hit to establishment Democrats, especially if Ortiz-Velez can hang on.
Twelfth Assembly District: Incumbent Democrat Russel Goodwin versus the Clancy-backed candidate is the latest example of the internal progressive fight that will tell us how far left the lane has moved.
Nineteenth Assembly District: Ryan Clancy has been challenged for the second straight cycle. Is the challenge serious this time? Hard to think that DSA candidates will go down in the same primary that Hong wins at the top of the ticket.
Twenty-first Assembly District: Does DSA candidate David Liners beat the Oak Creek mayor? This Republican held seat is a must win for Democrat in November if they want to hold the Assembly. If Liners is the nominee, this make th proposition for Democrats more difficult.
Thirty-seventh Assembly District: Does incumbent GOP finance chair Mark Born fend off the anti-data-center challenge for a second straight cycle? In a year with fewer GOP primaries than previous cycles, the energy to defeat incumbents seems to have passed.
Sixty-first Assembly District: Lawanda Chamber, Ben Brist, or Brian Bock are all competing for the chance to challenge incumbent GOP candidate, Bob Donovan. Similar to the twenty-first, the right candidate needs to win for Democrats to win the Assembly chambers.
Seventy-fourth Assembly District: This rematch from 2024 has incumbent Chanz Green again in a primary in the north woods. The second of the only two GOP Assembly candidates facing a challenger.
Seventy-sixth Assembly District: The race to replace Hong in the Assembly has seen a enormous amount of money in this deep blue, 90% Democrat district. We will find out whether Juliana Bennett’s terminally online DSA campaign was astroturfed or a real operation? Or will none of that matter since she was going up against a trans person in Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford? Expect whoever comes out of this primary to be a loud-mouth day one of the 2027 session.
