Is there enough appetite for a “moderate” candidate or do Democrats go all in on the progressive gambit?
The latest Marquette Law School Poll is another data point in a greater trend that Wisconsin Democrats have been worried about for months: the moderate lane in the party’s primary is being squeezed out.
The survey shows a clear gap between the two frontrunners — Mandela and Hong — and everyone else in the field. Overall polling remains all over the map with internals being released to create their own narratives. It is still difficult to declare a definitive leader, but the numbers leave little doubt that progressive energy is carrying the day right now. The most highly engaged voters are usually the ultra-progressives, and they have made it clear who they want. With candidates holding their powder, the polling move comes from direct grassroots support and reach.
With a Donald Trump midterm upon us, there are high hopes from Democrats to win the Governor’s mansion, meaning plenty of candidates threw their name in the ring. But the “moderates” are scattered and stuck in the single digits. Competing for the same donors and voters can be difficult when Democrats feel they have their next big chance to elect a true progressive.
Outgoing Democrat Governor Tony Evers has done his job. He vetoed transgender legislation time and time again; plenty of tax cuts proposed by the Legislature; and participation in the Federal Tax Credit Scholarships. He cleared the bare minimum any Democrat Governor should do, but Evers was often forced to be pragmatic to the ire of progressives. He signed the largest increase in Wisconsin’s school choice program since its inception; restrictions on Milwaukee to obtain a sales tax; and legislation to define what antisemitism is. While Evers did his job, it left some democrats thinking, “two terms have been plenty for a lot of Wisconsin governors.” A job well done, but a lot left on the table in Democrats’ eyes.
Can a moderate win on the Evers record and get enough progressives to back them?
Sara Rodriguez, Missy Hughes, and Joel Brennan are the “moderate” lane and all of them mention ties to Evers, at some point, in their messaging. Perhaps they aren’t parading around the fact that they all want his endorsement, but their rhetoric implies they certainly wouldn’t turn it down. Sara Rodriguez seems to be the last option for an Evers endorsement as he has publicly questioned his own Lt. Governor’s campaign plans. However, an Evers endorsement might be the one thing to save any one of their single-digit polling woes.
This comes with massive political decisions. Be endorsed too early and be labeled an establishment candidate stifling the progressive grassroots; endorsed too late and Francesca or Mandela is already too far ahead. Or perhaps Democrats see August 11 as a golden opportunity to elect a true progressive and move on from the Evers era altogether.
That is, if Evers even decides to weigh in and I think he will, despite his public position to not endorse in the race.
By May/June the spending will ramp up and undecideds will decide. Worrisome donors will have to figure out what candidate to back to stop a progressive from sinking a winnable gubernatorial race. But who is that candidate?
Former Democrat Party of Wisconsin Chair, Ben Wikler, is a man that I couldn’t agree less with, but someone who won. Although I can’t prove it, one can heavily imply that there was primary magic that had to be performed to clear the path for Mandela Barnes in 2022. Can the new chair work that same magic to ensure an electable candidate wins in November? Mandela is now damaged goods with a progressive background that is fair game, despite his recent pivot toward more electable rhetoric. Francesca Hong is the candidate of the grassroots, but has a voting record that even has Reddit second-guessing her as a candidate.
As the days go by and the polls continue to show progressives out front, I have to imagine some Democrats are a little worried about August 11. The question is whether the moderate rescue operation will come soon enough.
