A new national survey conducted by Marquette University Law School indicates that the generic congressional ballot has narrowed considerably over the past month, with Republicans increasing their support among both registered and likely voters.
The poll, conducted from May 20 to 26 among 1,001 adults nationwide, reports that registered voters are divided, with 46% supporting Democratic candidates and 45% supporting Republican candidates. Seven percent indicated support for neither party, and 1% stated they would not vote. Among likely voters, the margin is 49% for Democratic candidates and 48% for Republican candidates.
This represents a notable change from the April Marquette poll, in which registered voters favored Democrats by 48% to 44%, and likely voters supported Democrats by a wider 53% to 43% margin. The current results indicate a 2-point decrease for Democrats and a 1-point increase for Republicans among registered voters, as well as a 4-point decrease for Democrats and a 5-point increase for Republicans among likely voters.
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all adults, 3.6 percentage points for registered voters, and 4.4 percentage points for likely voters.
President Trump’s overall job approval is currently 38% approval and 62% disapproval, a decline from 48% approval and 52% disapproval at the beginning of his second term in February 2025. Approval ratings have decreased across major issues such as the economy, inflation, and border security.
Despite the president’s declining approval ratings, the generic congressional ballot has shifted in favor of Republicans. The poll also finds that the two parties are nearly equal in overall favorability, with 38% of respondents viewing the Republican Party favorably and 36% viewing the Democratic Party favorably.
Within the Republican Party, Trump continues to exert significant influence in primary contests. Seventy-one percent of Republican respondents indicate they would vote for a candidate endorsed by Trump in a primary, compared to 20% who would support an incumbent Republican opposed by the president. Among Republicans who view the MAGA movement favorably, this support increases to 87%.
The Marquette survey was administered by the SSRS Opinion Panel, utilizing a nationally representative probability sample and conducted through online interviews.
