Democrats need a net gain of five seats to take control in the Assembly. Two competitive districts and a pair of independents running in each perhaps make the math for Democrats a bit easier.
The 51st Assembly District covers southwest Wisconsin. It includes all of Iowa and Lafayette counties plus portions of western Dane and eastern Grant. The area is largely rural and agricultural, with small cities such as Dodgeville, Mineral Point, and Mount Horeb. Redistricting made the seat lean slightly Democratic on paper. Yet incumbent Republican Todd Novak has held it for years through close contests. In 2024, he defeated Democrat Elizabeth Grabe by roughly three and a half points. Novak consistently runs stronger than the top of the ticket in his district. He brings local credibility and a record of delivering for the area without relying on national waves. Arguably, he may be the strongest incumbent in the Assembly after the retirement of Jessie Rodriguez in the 21st.
Democrat Ben Gruber, a Department of Natural Resources conservation warden and labor leader, is challenging Novak this cycle. The race figures to be competitive once again, but starts off as Lean Republican. However, we have a new wrinkle in the race. An independent, Nathan Tataje, is also on the ballot. Tataje is running as a member of the American Solidarity Party, which I can’t say I’ve ever seen or heard about before. But does he siphon away voters in an already tough district? In a close race, that option can pull votes in multiple directions or maybe he has not impact at all.
The 53rd Assembly District sits in the Fox Valley and covers Neenah, Menasha, and parts of south Appleton. The seat came open when longtime Republican Dean Kaufert chose not to run again for the second time, after making his return to the Assembly for one session. In 2024, Kaufert held the district by a slim margin against his Democratic opponent, winning by less than 1%, or 364 votes. The open seat makes 2026 even more fluid.
Republican David Daniels of Neenah has stepped forward to carry the conservative banner. Daniels is a local businessman focused on the issues that matter to families and businesses in the Fox Cities. Democrat Becky Nichols, a former Menasha common council member and mayoral candidate, is the Democratic nominee. Like the 51st, another Independent is running in the 53rd. Rachael Dowling, a Winnebago County supervisor from Menasha, has also entered the race. Unlike Tataje, who has very little institutional credibility, Dowling already has a base of support as a county supervisor. In an open seat that was decided by less than a point last cycle, the independent proves to be too much of a wild card. The seat starts as a toss-up.
Independents in both races create uncertainty. In tight districts, any third option can siphon support from either side. Democrats may hope these candidacies fragment the conservative vote enough to tip the scales. However, It is not a strategy that automatically delivers the five seats Democrats require for a majority.
Even if Democrats were to win both the 51st and 53rd, they would still need three additional pickups elsewhere. The presence of independents helps create opportunity, yet it does not rewrite the map. Wisconsin voters have shown they can split tickets and reward candidates who focus on local concerns.
The larger question remains the same. If Democrats cannot close the gap even when conditions include open seats and independents on the ballot, their path to control stays narrow.
