The conservative ecosphere spent months salivating over the thought of running against Francesca Hong in a general election, myself included. She could have single-handedly allowed Republicans a path to a red trifecta. Then the votes came in and David Crowley, the Milwaukee County Executive whose campaign had to be dragged out of the grave by Tony Evers himself, edged her by a handful of points. Cue the collective sigh. Cue the online doomers. Cue the sudden discovery that maybe this race is not the free win some promised.
Prediction markets are all the rage right now and they are loving David Crowley. Personally, they are some of the worst data points that people can rely on when it comes to an election. The obsession over them is a personal gripe, but they drive so many narratives and instant reactions. Currently, the markets are not great for Republicans.
Any Republican still clutching their pearls and declaring the sky is falling needs a doctor’s note and a long conversation with a psychologist. This is not the time for panic. This is the time for a steady hand. Trust the plan.
Tom Tiffany has spent months building a war chest, refining his message, and running a disciplined campaign while Democrats tore themselves apart in one of the ugliest primaries Wisconsin has seen in years. Crowley dropped out, then got resurrected by pure necessity when the establishment realized Hong was about to walk away with the nomination. He still has to prove he can be the polished front-runner the party suddenly needs him to be. The man failed to catch fire the first time around. Who is willing to bet the honeymoon energy wanes and eventually comes back to sealevel?
Governors races are not Senate races. They are not presidential races. They are more local, less purely partisan, and far more open to crossover voters who care about schools, roads, taxes, and whether the state is functional. A Trump midterm environment seems daunting and it will be an uphill climb, regardless of how well Team Tiffany does. However, Tiffany has been consistent and on message for months. Crowley is still trying to figure out which version of himself is electable.
And then there is Hong question. She is not the nominee, but she is still a massive problem for the other side. Democrats just lived through the most bitter primary and split electorate in recent memory. The DSA crowd feels shafted and betrayed. Tony Evers is essentially telling them to sit down, shut up, and deal with it. Crowley’s first real job is mending those relationships so those voters show up in November. Does he campaign with her? Does he risk alienating the moderates he needs by hugging the socialist who nearly beat him? Every choice carries a cost. Perfect games do not get pitched in politics. Mistakes will be made and Tiffany’s team exists to capitalize on them.
Republicans have certain advantages right now, but perhaps less then they did Monday. Despite that, a more local race that is consistent can overcome the national vibes, while a fractured Democrat coalition still has some soul searching to do.
Stay the course. Trust the plan. The only people who should be nervous right now are the ones who just spent the last six months fighting each other.
