Tuesday night was ugly. Nationally, Republicans absorbed a wave that no serious observer should pretend was anything but a referendum on the environment. Wisconsin was no exception. Democrats flipped the Assembly to a 53-46 majority and the Senate to 18-15. They took the governor’s office. They swept all the targets.
In the Assembly, Democrats needed five flips and got eight. In the Senate, they needed two and took three. That is the silver lining buried under the rubble. The bottom fell out. When the environment is this bad, you almost cannot go further. Every realistic target seat moved left. 53 seats for Democrats in the Assembly seems to be their high bar and one they ideally won’t eclipse.
With a more neutral environment and a rebuilt Republican infrastructure that target some of the more institutional Republican seats, flipping the Assembly or the Senate back does not require a miracle.
The Senate is a different question depending on the map of next cycle. This is not a structural realignment that locks in permanent Democratic control of the Wisconsin Legislature. With a more neutral environment and a rebuilt Republican infrastructure that target some of the more institutional Republican seats, flipping the Assembly or the Senate back does not require a miracle.
Democrats are already high on their own supply. The wins were not entirely of their own making. An anti-Trump vote can only be sustained for so long. The left spent years messaging that Republican majorities were the sole obstacle to utopia. Now they have the keys. The excuses expire in January.
Here is the part they have not thought through. Democrats do not know how to govern. They have not had to. Tony Evers spent eight years with Republican majorities that forced compromises, blocked the worst impulses, and gave him someone else to blame. That limiting principle is gone.
Democrats are already high on their own supply. The wins were not entirely of their own making. An anti-Trump vote can only be sustained for so long.
The Democratic trifecta means David Crowley, Greta Neubauer, and Dianne Hesselbein own every line of the budget and every controversial bill. They have spent years promising the base that full control would deliver school funding, Medicaid expansion, marijuana legalization, union rights, and a long list of progressive priorities. Do they have a coalition capable of delivering all of it? On paper, yes. In practice, the socialist caucus just gained real leverage.
Ryan Clancy, Darrin Madison, Christian Phelps, and the rest of that crew did not run to moderate. They have hard lines against anything that smells like compromise. Legislative leaders and Crowley will have to placate them to hold the caucus together. What happens when the socialists decide to play hardball on the budget or a priority bill? Evers could always point at the Republican Legislature. Crowley cannot. The base that just delivered the trifecta will not accept half-measures. Pass the extreme legislation or feel the wrath of the Democrat base that have been hyped up for years.
Democrats will mess this up. It is nearly impossible for any party to pitch a perfect game after 16 years out of power, and this one has almost no institutional memory of running the place. Does Greta Neubauer have the votes locked for Speaker, or does she have to cut deals that hand the socialist caucus more power and committee chairs to secure the gavel? Either outcome creates friction. The state budget is the obvious pressure point.
There is roughly $3.3 billion sitting in the surplus. Democrats have a wish list a mile long. Can they agree on what to spend it on and in what amounts without a civil war inside the caucus? Others will want to expand programs.
Democrats will mess this up. It is nearly impossible for any party to pitch a perfect game after 16 years out of power, and this one has almost no institutional memory of running the place.
The socialists will want structural changes that lock in spending. Lack of majority experience will show. One faction will overreach. Another will get cold feet when the bills come due. Chaos is the default setting when the only thing uniting the coalition was opposition to Republicans.
The night was historically bad. Democrats own the next two years of Wisconsin government with margins that a competent Republican operation can erase if the environment normalizes. The anti-Trump wave carried them. Governing will test whether they can stand without it.
