Tuesday night the five remaining Democrats chasing the nomination for governor step onto the stage. Francesca Hong sits in the clear lead. Mandela Barnes remains stuck near 20 percent. David Crowley just injected himself back into the race with a sudden half-million-dollar cash haul. Kelda Roys and Joel Brennan are still hunting for some attention. How each of them behaves for sixty minutes will tell us far more about the state of the race than any poll released this week.
The Frontrunner’s Dilemma
Francesca Hong is the clear favorite. Traditional campaign logic says the leader ignores the pack and talks over their heads to the voters at home. That approach works when you are running a conventional race. This is not a conventional race. Hong’s entire brand is the outsider socialist who refuses to play the old games. If she engages and starts trading punches, she risks elevating the people trying to knock her off. Watch whether she treats the others as serious threats or as background noise. That choice will reveal how secure she actually feels.
The Establishment’s Choice
Expect the sharpest elbows from Mandela Barnes and David Crowley. Both men are fighting for the right to face Hong one-on-one in the final stretch. Crowley just raised more than $550,000 in roughly a week after re-entering the race, bringing his cash total to roughly $865,000. That money buys him airtime with the chance to take a viral moment and broadcast it to a larger audience. Despite this, Barnes has the better general-election numbers. The latest Marquette poll showed him leading Tom Tiffany while Hong trailed. Crowley could also talk about electability, but doesn’t have any public polling data to back it up. The question is whether he has new opposition research or just the same recycled lines we have already heard. One clean, unexpected hit could change the race overnight.
Brennan’s Choice
Joel Brennan’s last advertisement attacked Hong, Barnes, and Crowley in the same breath. That rules out the theory that he is simply the establishment attack dog clearing a path for Crowley. Brennan’s only realistic lane is total war. Anything short of relentless, equal-opportunity aggression against every other candidate on the stage will confirm he is just burning money for attention. Watch whether he actually throws the haymakers or settles for the usual process complaints about fundraising and “electability.” Half-measures will not move him.
Roys Plays the Long Game
Kelda Roys has raised real money yet has almost nothing tangible to show for it in the polls. She has floated veiled criticisms of her rivals without ever landing a direct blow. That strategy keeps her from alienating the progressive base she shares with Hong, but it also keeps her invisible. Tuesday night she faces a real choice. Does she finally open fire on the frontrunner, knowing those are the voters she needs, or does she keep the gloves on and hope the others destroy each other? Her approach will be the most interesting to watch because it is the least predictable.
Barnes’s Best Card
Mandela Barnes has been stuck near 20 percent for weeks. The new Marquette numbers give him the one argument that still has oxygen: he is the only Democrat currently beating Tom Tiffany. Expect him to repeat that fact every chance he gets. If I were advising him I would tell him to beat that drum until the moderators cut his mic. It is the only message that separates him from the rest of the field and the only one that might still move undecided Democrats who actually care about winning in November.
Tune in Tuesday, July 28, from 7 to 8 p.m. The debate airs live on WISN 12 in Milwaukee and streams at wisn.com. Partner stations carrying the broadcast include WBAY in Green Bay, WKOW in Madison, WAOW in Wausau, WQOW in Eau Claire, and WXOW in La Crosse.
