The primary started last September and now we are in the home stretch with roughly a month to go. The power rankings have barely budged. Francesca Hong sits on top. Mandela Barnes, Sara Rodriguez, and Kelda Roys are fighting over the middle. While Brennan is still hanging around further back after Crowley exited the race earlier this week. The fundamentals haven’t changed, but that does not mean the next few weeks will be quiet. This is when the race either locks in or breaks open.
The Message Game Is Mostly Locked
Every campaign has run its polls and tested its lines. There is almost no time left to pivot to something new. What you see in the current ads and public statements is the version they are taking to the finish line. Hong has stayed consistent with her core pitch. The rest of the field is hunting for that one final message that can still move numbers. Are they other candidates going to continue ignoring Hong or let the media do their dirty work? Is there an issue that someone thinks is the key to primary voters? The last push is happening right now on television and in mailboxes across the state. Pay attention to the exact wording and the tone. That is the argument they believe wins in the final days.
July 15 Finance Reports
Campaign finance reports drop on the 15th. Those numbers will answer more questions than anything else. Can anyone separate themselves from the pack on fundraising? Does Hong have the cash on hand to buy the television time she needs in these final weeks? Sara had a $1 million ad buy and Kelda had a $500,000 ad buy. Where did they get their money? Is there anything let in the tank for GOTV? Is Brennan still raking in high dollar donors that have already allowed him to get up on TV twice? If everyone still has fuel, the race stays more competitive than the current rankings suggest.
The July 28 Debate Is the Last Real Test
Absentee ballots have already been sent out and voters are receiving them. The only Democrat debate is scheduled for July 28. That timing limits how much it can move the overall electorate, but it does not make the night meaningless. Up to now, attacks on Hong have mostly traveled through friendly media outlets rather than direct confrontation. The debate stage removes that buffer. Will the other candidates finally go after her personally on stage, or will they keep using kid gloves to avoid disenfranchising her highly engaged base? Sara Rodriguez and Mandela Barnes seem content right now to trade shots with each other for second place. Or maybe they think Hong’s lead is softer than it appears and they are battling it out for first place. Maybe they have decided that direct confrontation is too risky. The debate will reveal which bet they are making. It will also show whether any candidate still believes they have a realistic path or if they are simply auditioning for future cycles. One night of unscripted exchanges can expose a lot about internal polling and campaign confidence.
Despite all of this, there are truly too many variables to consider, which makes this primary fun, for Republicans, to watch. We may be shocked by what we see on election day, we may have seen this a mile away. Predicting elections is based off the best available information and I believe these are the key observations to look for in the home stretch.
