A midterm election for the president’s party has traditionally been a rout. Since the New Deal, the president’s party has gained House seats in a midterm three times: Franklin Roosevelt in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998, and George W. Bush in 2002. Everything else is a loss, often a large one. Republicans have been preparing for this reality. However, in many states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota, it doesn’t look so certain. So the excuses are already being written, and the first draft is about money.
David Crowley said it outright after the latest reports. “Three billionaires are trying to buy Wisconsin’s governor’s office for Congressman Tom Tiffany,” he claimed, and they are doing it so Tiffany “will do their bidding.” The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, acting as the Democratic Party’s mouthpiece, echoed the sentiment in a September 23rd article that read more like a fundraising letter. Three billionaires, Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein and Diane Hendricks, put Tiffany in a cash lead. Tiffany raised about $26.3 million from July 1 to September 23. Crowley raised about $10.2 million. The Democratic Party of Wisconsin is down about 49 percent from its 2022 haul.
That is a fundraising problem. Crowley, desperate for cash is jet-setting between Washington, D.C., and California, looking for donors and messaging that this is a purchased election. The hypocrisy is in his own party’s books. The Tiffany campaign noted that the largest donor to the Wisconsin Democratic Party since 2019 is Reid Hoffman, the LinkedIn billionaire and Epstein Island frequent flyer, at more than $15 million. This cycle, the state party took $1 million from Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and $1 million from Lynde Uihlein (Richard’s cousin), then moved millions to Crowley. Tony Evers raised a record $41.2 million for his last race, $15.6 million of it from the state party. When billionaires fund Democrats, it is democracy. When Diane Hendricks and the Uihleins fund Republicans, it is a purchase. That is the groundwork. A loss in November will not be a loss. It will be something that was bought.
The polls are why they need the story. Marquette’s September 16-23 survey put Crowley at 49 percent and Tiffany at 46 among likely voters, inside a 4.8-point margin of error. Among registered voters, it was 46 to 45. Crowley’s lead with independents fell from 55-16 in August to 44-18, with 38 percent undecided. Michigan is the same shape. Fox News had Abdul El-Sayed at 50 and Mike Rogers at 49. A Washington Post poll had El-Sayed up 48-45 while a generic Democrat led 53-45. Minnesota, a state Democrats are supposed to have a lock on, is a tie: a September co/efficient survey had Amy Klobuchar at 47 and Lisa Demuth at 45 for governor, and Peggy Flanagan at 43 to Michele Tafoya’s 42 for Senate.
Then comes the theft language. Hakeem Jeffries said Republicans “are going to try to do everything they can to rig the midterm elections.” Gwen Moore posted on July 10 that Republicans cry “election integrity” so they can rig the midterms. In March, she said the SAVE Act exists so Trump “can disenfranchise millions of voters and steal the midterm elections.” On September 22 in Madison, Tammy Baldwin said Trump is “selling conspiracy theories” and “undercutting the midterm elections.”
Kirk Bangstad skipped the soft language of blaming Trump. The Minocqua crackpot provocateur posted the plan:
“The real question Is whether or not U.S. soldiers will shoot and kill American citizens when they mobilize non-violently to stop Trump from stealing our elections between November 3 and January 3. This is the reason Hegseth is firing all the generals right now. If U.S. soldiers refuse to kill their fellow citizens during these mass protests, then we’ll win and the Trump regime will be done. If U.S. soldiers shoot and kill their fellow citizens, then there will most assuredly be civil war.”
He already has a vision for the time between Election Day and the seating of Congress.
“We simply can’t play defense and ‘wait for justice’ when the purpose is to tie this election up in the courts for years. Governor Evers and Josh Kaul should have better prepared for this but they didn’t. We must mobilize in dc with millions of protestors, and strike all over the country until the winners of the elections are seated.”
First, the billionaires bought it. Then the Republicans rigged it. Then the crowd has to stay in Washington until the right people are seated to thwart a civil war. A Trump mid-term election should not require this much spin from Democrats.
The left is pre-denying the midterms because the money, the polling, and the momentum are breaking toward Republicans in the states that were supposed to be a lock in a wave year. Tiffany is outraising Crowley by more than two-to-one. The upper Midwest is a tie, not a rout. If they were confident, they would talk about turnout. They are talking about soldiers, strikes, and a stolen election that has not been held. The refusal is the campaign is growing, because they’re worried the wave won’t come.
