It seems obvious: whoever gets more votes wins an election. But turnout in Wisconsin is a different animal. Turnout and enthusiasm, or how easy it is to get your voters to show up and vote, are what decides elections in our beloved swing state.
Wisconsin has become the most decided-by-the-thinnest-margins state in America. In 2004, John Kerry won the state by 0.38 percent. That was the smallest margin of any state in the country that year. When Trump flipped Wisconsin in 2016, he won by 0.77 percent.
Two years later, Tony Evers beat Scott Walker by 1.1 percent. Biden reclaimed the state in 2020 by 0.63 percent. In 2022, Ron Johnson held his Senate seat against Mandela Barnes by 26,718 votes. Those margins are turnout and enthusiasm gaps. And 2026 is shaping up to follow the same trend.
Let those numbers sink in. Twenty-six thousand votes. That’s smaller than the population of many Wisconsin cities. That’s an election where turnout doesn’t just matter. Who turns out, and how easy it is to get them to the polls, will determine the election results.
In Wisconsin, turnout doesn’t decide close races. Turnout decides all of them. This year will be no exception.
Wisconsin has hosted some of the tightest statewide elections in modern American history. Consistently. This is a state that has been split almost exactly in half for two decades. Dane County and Milwaukee keep getting bluer. Rural counties keep getting redder. Suburbs move back and forth. And every single election, the margin seem tighter while candidates and groups work harder than ever to turnout their respective voters.
According to VoteHub, Wisconsin is one of only three gubernatorial races that has moved rightward in polling since Labor Day. And absentee ballot requests are down significantly from recent cycles, even more so in bluer counties. When you’re operating in a state where elections are routinely decided by fewer than 30,000 votes, these two data points point to enthusiasm and turnout being even more important than ever in November.
In Wisconsin, turnout doesn’t decide close races. Turnout decides all of them. This year will be no exception.
