The One-page Memo Provides No Crosstabs, No Demographic Breakdowns, and Almost No Methodological Detail
At first glance, you may see a poll showing a Democratic candidate leading their Republican opponent by a point, and you might think it’s a sign for Republicans to panic. But the reality isn’t as clear when you look behind the curtain. Rebecca Cooke’s campaign touted an internal poll Thursday showing the Democratic challenger leading incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden by a single point in Wisconsin’s most competitive congressional district — yet the one-page memo provides no crosstabs, no demographic breakdowns, and almost no methodological detail beyond the topline numbers.
The poll, conducted Feb. 12-17, yet released over one month later by the Democratic firm Impact Research among 500 likely general-election voters, found Cooke at 49%, Van Orden at 48%, and 3% undecided. Cooke’s net favorability was +7 (39% favorable, 32% unfavorable), while Van Orden’s was -7 (43% favorable, 50% unfavorable). The March 18 memo noted a ±4.4% margin of error but did not provide sample composition by party, age, gender, geography, or income — details routinely included in public polls. This limited disclosure should draw immediate criticism and be seen as a sign of a floundering campaign rather than a show of strength.
“If she’s only up one in HER OWN INTERNAL POLL in the closest congressional election in the purplest of purple states, she is doing terribly in this race,” Heartland Post Editor in Chief Dan O’Donnell wrote on X.
Cooke, who lost to Van Orden in 2024 and previously ran for the seat in 2022, has been attacking Van Orden constantly while being bankrolled by Epstein Island regular Reid Hoffman. Yet even her campaign’s own polling shows the incumbent — despite negative net favorability — remains essentially tied in a district President Trump carried in 2024.
The memo’s brevity contrasts with standard public polling releases, which typically include full demographic crosstabs for independent verification. Impact Research described the survey as a “live phone and text-to-web” poll but did not provide additional information on sample weighting or screening.
Political campaigns often release internal polls, which often inflate leads to boost fundraising and media coverage. Cooke’s 1-point lead, released more than seven months before Election Day, should set off more alarms at the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee than at the National Republican Congressional Committee.
