Republicans currently hold a slim 18-15 majority in the State Senate and many political insiders speculate that control of could flip to the Democrats if there is a blue wave this fall.
Even though some supposed Republicans have apparently written off any chance of keeping control of the Senate, a deeper analysis reveals that Republicans have a solid shot of doing just that. Senate Republicans will need to win 2 of 4 contested seats this November while Senate Democrats would need to win 3 of the 4 contested seats to flip control of the chamber.
In addition to the necessary role the Senate plays in passing legislation and the crafting of a state budget, the Senate also has the added critical responsibility of approving or rejecting the cabinet members and political appointees of the next administration.
Whether the next governor is Gov. Tiffany or Gov. Hong, a new administration will want to have, will need to have, all of its agency heads and vast number of political appointees in place in order to carry out the winner’s agenda. The State Senate is the body that votes to approve – or reject – instrumental parts of the new Governor’s team.
Whomever wins, the State Senate will play a massive role in getting Hong’s misery-inducing socialist agenda adopted or Tiffany’s freedom-for-all priorities passed into law.
We must note at the start that the Senate Republicans have a change at the top of their leadership team as they head into campaign season. Sen. Devin LeMahieu of Sheboygan has decided to not run for reelection. After the disastrous 2024 campaign cycle where Senate Republicans lost every important race, maybe a fresh start isn’t such a bad thing.
An early important signal to look for is if Senate Republicans can raise the needed funds to compete with the millions that Epstein Island visitor Reid Hoffman and the Illinois debacle Gov. JB Pritzker will dump into Wisconsin again in their attempt to hand control of the state to rabid socialist radicals. Time will tell.
Senate District 5
In Senate District 5, covering parts of Milwaukee and Waukesha counties including Brookfield, Elm Grove, Pewaukee, Wauwatosa and West Allis, Republican incumbent Sen. Rob Hutton is not seeking re-election.
That means Assembly Democrat Robyn Vining from Wauwatosa is running for the open seat as well as political newcomer, Republican Dr. Mike Roberts, a Physical Therapist and small business owner. Dr. Roberts’ successful practice began in Wauwatosa and he lives in Pewaukee.
The supposed all-knowing prognosticators will point out that Kamala Harris won this district with 52% of the vote in 2024. Yep, we get it. President Trump didn’t do so well in parts of Waukesha County. Last time we checked, President Trump isn’t on the ballot. Truth be told, if you set aside personalities, many of the issues central to the President’s agenda are incredibly popular with everyone in this district but the screeching extreme socialist base of the modern Democrat Party. There are also countless examples of local Republican candidates winning in all sorts of challenging environments all over this state and the country.
Another point to keep in mind, the constitutional amendment that stops noncitizens from voting in our elections overwhelmingly passed in this district with just over 70% of the vote on that same ballot. The same ballot. Huh. Funny how the chattering class conveniently glosses over this fundamental characteristic of conservative Waukesha County. Clearly, there is a path to reach common-sense conservatives and independents. Now, the Republican candidates and the consultants will need to craft an effective message and cobble together a winning coalition using these types of common-sense issues, which is not a sure bet (See the 2024 State Senate campaigns), but the path to victory exists.
Looking at the races down ballot drives that point home.
The Democrat candidates for the three Assembly seats within the 5th Senate District combined for a total of 53,775 votes. The three Republican candidates combined for 52,265 and there was an IND candidate in one of the race that got 1,117 votes. That’s only a 1,510 vote difference with an another thousand votes up for grabs. This is not the slam dunk that the Democrats and the mainstream media are claiming it is.
The center of this Senate District, the city of Brookfield, was also going to be the central component of the “Republicans have lost the suburbs” narrative in 2024 election cycle. Problem is, Republican Steve Ponto kicked Mike Hallquist, the golden boy of the suburban Socialist Democrats, 56% to 44% to keep Mayor’s office in Republican hands. The new socialist base of the Democrat Party was so confident and smug after spending over $100,000, an unheard amount in a local Mayor’s race, that Hallquist was going to plant the hammer and sickle flag in Republican Brookfield but it didn’t happen.
Anyone who tells you that Senate District 5 is a lock for the Democrats is lying to you.
Senate District 17
The next Senate seat to watch is Senate District 17 in the southwest part of the state. SD 17 includes Iowa, Lafayette, Green, Crawford and Grant counties along with parts of Dane County. Republican incumbent Senator Howard Marklein of Spring Green is seeking re-election. Marklein is co-chair of the all powerful Joint Finance Committee, an elite fundraiser, and the hardest working politician in the entire state. Marklein has never stopped doing doors in every corner of the district since he was first elected to the Legislature in 2014. He is everywhere in the district, every single day of the week. No one is going to outwork Howard Marklein.
Looking a voter in the eye, shaking his/her hand, and asking that voter sincerely what he/she cares about still goes a long way in this state. All that one-on-one interaction will also go a long way to inoculating Marklein to the predictable, over-the-top, hyperventilating attack ads that will try to make Howard out to be a blood-thirsty ogre who likes to beat baby seals to death on the banks of the Mississippi.
The Democrats have a three-way primary in this seat. This is important because a primary sucks up finite resources that could go to defeating Marklein in November and a contested primary has the distinct possibility of dividing the Democrat’s voter coalition. Given the hostile takeover of the Democrat Party by the extreme socialist wing of the party all over this country right now, the chances of the Democrats coming out of the August primary here unified and working as a team is very slim.
Probably the biggest advantage that a challenger primary gives an incumbent like Marklein is that whomever wins the late in the cycle primary will only have a few weeks left, after expending all their effort and money just to get through the primary, to recharge and readjust their focus onto Marklein. Anyone who has run a race will tell you that it is not a lot of time to recuperate, tack to the center and replenish the campaign bank account. There is a reason insiders refer to Wisconsin’s August primary voting date as the incumbent-protection clause.
State Rep. Jenna Jacobson of Oregon, Corrine Hendrickson of New Glarus and Lisa White of Potosi are competing to take on Marklein this November.
Harris carried the district by about 1 percentage point in 2024. Just one point. Think about that for a second. If you only get your information from the legacy media, you would never know that this part of the state is 50/50 true purple politically. Luckily, you have The Heartland Post to give you the truth and the analysis you cannot find anywhere else.
While Harris won this district, if you dig a little deeper, there are a lot of GOP votes down ballot. In 2024, the Republican candidates in the three Assembly seats that make up Senate District 17 garnered over 53,000 votes. The Democrat candidates earned about 48,500 votes. Just like Howard Marklein, Dem Leadership has been saying for over a decade that State Rep. Todd Novak cannot keep winning his seat. But just like Howard Marklein, all Todd Novak does is keep winning and proving that there are a substantial number of independent, ticket splitter voters in this part of the state.
The only Wisconsinites can vote in Wisconsin elections constitutional amendment also provides greater insight into this race. In vote-rich Green and Grant counties, the amendment received over 14,000 yes votes or 69% in Green and, in Grant, it received over 19,000 yes votes or 76%. We know that part of this district is in Dane County and that Dane County is the only county in the state to vote down this constitutional amendment. But if you take out the no votes on this question that came from the City of Madison, which is NOT in SD 17, then you find that the common sense only Wisconsinites can vote in Wisconsin elections constitutional amendment passed in most of the rest of Dane County. Rural Dane County voters are not like or similar in any way to the hard-core, zealot socialist voters in Madison.
Again, if you only listen to the mainstream media or self-serving blowhard lobbyists you would be convinced that SD 17 is an easy pick up for the Democrats.
But then, you would be wrong.
Quick note – Insider intel suggests that Jacobson may be taking the primary win for granted. If true, that would be a big mistake which could prove fatal for her and the hope of Democrats to flip control of the State Senate.
Senate District 21
The next seat to keep an eye on is Senate District 21 in southeast Wisconsin. Republican incumbent Sen. Van Wanggaard of Racine, one of the few decent human beings at the Capitol, is retiring. The district includes portions of Racine County and Milwaukee County, running through the communities of Franklin, Hales Corners, Greendale, Greenfield, and Racine. The contest pits Republican Jim Croft against Democrat Trevor Jung. We will have more information on these two soon.
Kamala Harris won the district by roughly 1.2 percentage points in 2024. On that same ballot, in that same year, the constitutional amendment barring noncitizens from voting in Wisconsin elections received 75% of the vote in Racine County, 74% in Franklin, and almost 73% in Greenfield.
The 3 GOP Assembly candidates within the Senate district defeated their DEM counterparts in raw vote totals in 2024. GOP candidates got a total of 44,781 votes to the DEM candidates total of 35,571 votes.
This seat is also within Congressman Bryan Steil’s seat. Leadership Democrats and power brokers have been trying to defeat the rising star Steil ever since he first burst onto the scene back in 2018. Remember how confident they were that union hack Randy Bryce was going to beat Steil?
There clearly is a common-sense independent/mainstream conservative coalition in this part of the state that keeps electing Republicans up and down the ticket.
Senate District 31
Last of the Core Four to watch this fall is Senate District 31 in western Wisconsin, which covers Eau Claire County and parts of Chippewa, Dunn and Trempealeau counties. Thanks to the Tony-mandered legislative maps, Democratic incumbent Sen. Jeff Smith of Brunswick was scheduled to face Republican incumbent Sen. Jesse James of Thorp. James, a longtime police officer, has decided to take a job as a Police Chief in his community and not run against Smith.
In his place, Republicans recruited Eau Claire County Board member and former local news anchor Michele Magadance Skinner to run. Magadance Skinner previously ran against incumbent State Rep. Jodi Emerson in 2024.
Kamala Harris won the district by about 2 percentage points in 2024.
While it might seem that an incumbent Senator would have a distinct advantage over a first-time challenger, Democrat Smith has never really been fully embraced by the voters in this part of the state. An underfunded Republican Dave Estenson almost beat him in 2022, losing by just 700 votes despite Smith spending almost a million dollars to retain his seat. Estenson spent about $470,000.00.
Jeff Smith has also been rejected by the voters in this area numerous times, losing 3 Assembly races in a row during the 2010, 2012, and 2014 elections. As hard as it is to imagine, Democrat Smith has lost more races than he has won in his legislative career. Doesn’t actually inspire confidence, now does it?
The Dem Assembly candidates in this Senate seat had a narrow advantage in 2024, winning 51,094 compared to the 50,146 votes that the GOP candidates pulled down.
The constitutional amendment barring noncitizens from voting in Wisconsin elections won 66% of the vote in Eau Claire County, 78% in Chippewa County, 73% in Dunn County, and 79% in Trempealeau County.
Bottom Line
Despite the amateur analysis from some in the mainstream media who desperately want a Democratic blue wave so Wisconsin follows in the footsteps of our neighbors Minnesota and Illinois, an honest assessment paints a much different picture. Senate Republicans actually have a really good chance of retaining control of the State Senate. Democrats will need to thread the needle and win 3 of 4 highly contested fights to wrestle control away. Republicans need to win just 2 of the 4. While there is a lot of ground to be covered between now and the November election, Senate Republicans start off in an advantageous position.
Make no doubt, this is a critical and monumental election for the future of our great state. The stakes have never been higher. The Democrats will stop at nothing to rip full political power away from the Republicans. As judged by recent results for the fierce socialistic wing of their party, Democrats know what is at stake and are determined to win. Republicans – volunteers, party members, donors, leadership – need to work together to meet their intensity and take this challenge head on.
As our analysis shows, hope for Republicans is not lost and if Republicans work hard and show how out of touch that socialist base of the Democrat Party is, they can stop the march and rise of socialism in this country dead in its tracks, right here in Wisconsin.
