Democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong holds a commanding 29-point lead in the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor, according to a new State Navigate poll released Tuesday.
Hong, a Madison progressive and Democratic Socialists of America member, received 44% support among likely Democratic primary voters. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who re-entered the race last week with Gov. Tony Evers’ endorsement, polled at 15%. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes received 14%. State Sen. Kelda Roys, former Evers administration official Joel Brennan, and former candidate Sara Rodriguez each polled at 4%. Thirteen percent of respondents were undecided or did not recall their choice.
The survey of 1,085 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted July 23-26 with a margin of error of ±3%. It was sponsored by Main Street Action and UpNorthNews.
Cross-tabs and the briefing show a clear divide in Hong’s support. She leads by 64 points among voters aged 18-29 and among infrequent primary participants, including those who have not voted recently. Her support declines among consistent primary voters, who are split between Crowley and Barnes. Hong also performs well with new registrants and in areas with more young or progressive voters, such as parts of Madison and some Milwaukee suburbs.
Crowley is viewed as better positioned than Hong to defeat Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in November. Barnes is the leading second-choice among voters supporting other candidates, indicating he could consolidate support if the field narrows.
State Navigate’s forecast model now assumes Hong as the Democratic nominee. The model notes that the general-election outlook against Tiffany appears “much different” in this scenario and reduces Democrats’ chances of securing a state government trifecta.
Hong’s rise continues despite efforts by party leaders to promote more moderate alternatives. Crowley’s late re-entry, supported by Evers after Rodriguez’s campaign imploded due to a financial reporting scandal, has not slowed her momentum. Hong’s platform includes previous calls to abolish ICE and defund police departments, positions that have drawn strong criticism from Republicans, who argue these stances would be harmful in a general election in a state that supported Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2024.
The Aug. 11 primary is two weeks away, and early in-person absentee voting began Tuesday.
