Republicans hold majorities in both houses, but Democrats need a handful of flips in key districts identified by the Heartland Post to seize control.
Republicans currently hold a 54-45 majority in the Assembly and an 18-15 edge in the Senate. Democrats need five Assembly seats to reach a majority and must win three of four contested Senate races to flip that chamber, according to Heartland Post legislative previews. Those previews flagged the exact battlegrounds that will decide whether the GOP keeps the gavel.
In the Senate, District 5 is open after Republican Rob Hutton stepped aside. Democrat Robyn Vining faces Republican Mike Roberts in a suburban Milwaukee-Waukesha seat that Kamala Harris carried. District 17 features Republican incumbent Howard Marklein against the Democratic primary winner, with the seat sitting near even in recent presidential voting. District 21 opened when Republican Van Wanggaard retired; Republican Jim Croft meets Democrat Trevor Jung in a redrawn Racine-area race both parties treat as essential. District 31 pits Democratic incumbent Jeff Smith against Republican Michele Magadance Skinner in the Eau Claire area.
On the Assembly side, the Heartland Post listed eleven districts that will settle the chamber:
- District 21 is open after Republican Jessie Rodriguez left. Republican Dylan Pfaffenbach faces the Democratic nominee Dan Bukiewicz in the Oak Creek seat.
- District 26 has Democratic incumbent Joe Sheehan defending against Republican challenger John Belanger
- District 30 keeps Republican incumbent Shannon Zimmerman against Democrat Kevin Knoke.
- District 51 has Republican incumbent Todd Novak defending against Democrat Ben Gruber.
- District 53 is open after Republican Dean Kaufert retired, with Republican David Daniels facing Democrat Becky Nichols.
- District 61 features Republican incumbent Bob Donovan being challenged by Democrat Ben Brist.
- District 85 has Republican incumbent Pat Snyder against Democrat John Kroll.
- District 88 has Republican Ben Franklin against Democrat Brandy Tollefson.
- District 89 has Democratic incumbent Ryan Spaude against Republican Bobby Lindsey.
- District 92 keeps Republican incumbent Clint Moses against Democrat Jeremiah Fredrickson.
- District 94 has Democratic incumbent Steve Doyle facing Republican Keith Purnell.
These are the precise races the Heartland Post identified as the ones that will determine which party controls the Legislature next year. Most were decided by thin margins in 2024 under the new maps.
