Republicans enter the final week with a 54-45 majority in the Wisconsin State Assembly. Democrats need a net gain of five seats to reach a 50-seat majority and take the gavel for the first time since 2010. The 2024 results under the new maps produced several races decided by a few thousand votes or less with those same districts largely deciding he future majority.
Heartland Post Founder Dan O’Donnell has talked about on our website and on his WISN AM 1130 show, Democrats believe that there is a blue wave coming in Wisconsin and across the country. And they could be right, especially if you look at these races from an historically perspective. The President’s party does generally suffer in the mid-term elections. But Wisconsin Republicans, top to bottom, have fielded an incredibly comprehensive and well-financed plan to try to buck that trend. We see numerous examples in dozens of races all across the state that the Republican’s plan of attack and marshaled resources are winning. We also hear of insider polling that shows November 3rd will be a good day for Democrats. The lack luster and banal way Democrats are running all across the state suggests that Democrats believe that individual campaigns do not matter, the political environment is so favorable to them that they just need a name, any name, on the ballot and Team Democrat is going to cruise to victory. Why else would David Crowley refuse to participate in the traditional post-debate press conference with a statewide audience watching? Time will tell who is right. Chances are, given our voting history as a state, that the purple voters of Wisconsin will send mix messages on election day and give neither side a clear mandate or a solid rebuking.
With all that being said, here is our best analysis on critical legislative races around the state based on the intel we have at this time.
Assembly District 21 is open after longtime Republican Jessie Rodriguez retired. Her incumbency is a huge blow for Republicans as her unique electoral fortitude will be missed. Democrat Dan Bukiewicz, the Oak Creek mayor and president of the Milwaukee Building and Construction Trades Council, defeated David Liners in the August primary. He faces Republican Dylan Pfaffenbach, a Carroll University student and political outsider. Pfaffenbach reportedly has knocked on every voter’s door three times, which is unheard of in political circles. The district went Republican by under three points in 2024. Although seen as a tough hold for Republicans, Bukiewicz, who has been criticized on his data center stance, may not be as strong of a candidate as originally thought. Reports show that the race might be as close as 2 points. Democrats recently unexpectedly dropped almost one million dollars into TV advertising for this race at the last minute, signaling that their polling shows that Pfaffenbach is outworking Bukiewicz and closing.
Assembly District 26 features Democratic incumbent Joe Sheehan against Republican John Belanger, a former Sheboygan alderman who won the primary. Sheehan, a former school superintendent, won the open seat in 2024 by less than three points. His record has insulated him with moderate voters, but a strong showing from Belanger, who ran for mayor, has the potential to give Sheehan a tough race.
Assembly District 30 has Republican incumbent Shannon Zimmerman facing Democrat Kevin Knoke in the River Falls area. Knoke is a local teacher from Hudson, but Zimmerman has held the competitive seat through multiple cycles. The district has more of a built in partisan advantage that leans slightly Republican, but still will be contested in a lean Democrat year. Zimmerman was getting hit for missing votes by the Knoke campaign, but has since responded with an ad explaining family health emergencies. Zimmerman and his friends have spent approximately $1.5 million compared to Knoke’s $1.1 million. This message from Zimmerman is helping ease voter concerns that were being heard at the doors. Early vote seems to be very high for this part of the state which has a some of the most engaged voters in the state.
Assembly District 51 has Republican Todd Novak defending against Democrat Ben Gruber, a conservation warden, and independent Nathan Tataje. Novak won by under four points in 2024 in his Democratic-leaning district. His long-time local brand remains his strongest asset that continues to defy partisan logic. The presence of the unknown independent keeps this race interesting as there is little margin for error in a Democrat favorable environment. However, this independent candidate seems less of a factor and more of a placeholder. Media buy data shows that the Republican Novak has spent over $1.6 million and the Gruber $1.3 million.
In this swing district in this environment, the question is: will Novak’s relentless work on the doors and his non-partisan advocacy for his district insulate him in what could be a challenging year for Republicans?
Assembly District 53 is open after Dean Kaufert retired. Republican David Daniels faces Democrat Becky Nichols and Independent Rachael Dowling. The 2024 margin was just over one point Republican for Kaufert who was an extremely well-known and good candidate. This open seat initially leans Democrat, but Rachael Dowling’s independent campaign is the largest wildcard. Dowling has a small constituency, but is slightly more established than the other independent candidates across the state, but a few hundred votes pulled to the Independent from the Democrat could make this one of the closest races of the cycle.
Assembly District 61 has Republican Bob Donovan facing Democrat Ben Brist, an Army veteran who won the Democrat 3-way primary. Donovan, a former Milwaukee alder with high name recognition, won by just over three points in 2024. He has consistently outrun the top of the ticket, but political newcomer, and fresh Greendale resident, Brist could contest that. This race seems to hinge on if votes would like new blood or the old-school nostalgic politics that many people wish we could return to. Team Donovan has run a great race with effective ads that show Brist is as radical as Socialist Hong (In Brist’s own words) while Brist has used old attacks once again to go after Donovan personally. These attacks haven’t worked in the past for Democrats but they think this in this environment things are different. Team Donovan has spent $2.6 million to Brist’s $1.5 million.
On doors, voters are more concerned about their cost of living and their safety than they are about personal attacks. Donovan has done a good job in previous campaigns and as an elected official showing constituents that he is willing to fight for them, which translates to strong support at the doors.
Assembly District 85 has Republican Pat Snyder against Democrat John Kroll in the Wausau area. Snyder won by more than six points in 2024. The Wausau area is a city that voted for conservative Doug Diny, but is certainly not some deep red stronghold. Snyder authored bipartisan legislation that was signed into law such as extending the healthcare coverage for new moms. He has a strong record of actual accomplishments that will certainly help him in a tough electoral year. The spending in this race is nearly even, with each spending approximately $1.7 million or so.
Assembly District 88 has Republican Ben Franklin against Democrat Brandy Tollefson. Franklin won the open seat by under one point in 2024 in one of the closets elections of the cycle. This year should be absolutely no different. Incumbency helps, but the margin was too narrow for a clear edge. Tollefson has been called out for previously using a staffer in her advertising to feature a Democrat operative as a doctor. Tollefson, like many Democrats, has been using the data center attack line, but one of her new ads features a power substation which she infers is actually a data center. These disingenuous attacks do not play well with voters. Voters want elected officials they can trust, not one that lies to try and get into office. Franklin has been honest and direct with his constituents during his first term in office, giving him a leg up over Tollefson in the world of authenticity.
Assembly District 89 has Republican Bobby Lindsey against Democratic incumbent Ryan Spaude. Bobby Lindsey is considered one of the best recruits by Republicans this election cycle. Spaude won the open seat in 2024 by under three points. The Green Bay-area district is closely watched alongside the neighboring 88th. Both seats will probably be decided by a few hundred votes a piece and determine control of the legislature. Spaude faces his toughest test yet in Bobby Lindsey, a former Marine and law enforcement officer. Spaude has also been accused of taking credit for proposals he actually voted against, introducing legislation after session for political purposes, and conveniently missing key votes on controversial bills.
This again is a race where authenticity matters, as does presence. Bobby Lindsey’s efforts on the doors have not gone unnoticed by voters, giving him a real shot at unseating an incumbent who is far too radical for this Green Bay area seat. The incumbent Spaude has only spent $400,000 while the Republican Lindsey is closing in on $1 million. Feels like this might be a rare case where an incumbent is knocked off.
Assembly District 92 has Republican Clint Moses against Democrat Jeremiah Fredrickson in the Menomonie area. Moses won by more than six points last cycle and is a local chiropractor in the district. Another district that has more of a built in Republican advantage, but certainly is on the radar for Democrats. The right circumstances make this district in play. Moses is not taking anything for granted, spending $1.3 million so far. Fredrickson is apparently at just $500,00.
Senate Control Hinges on Marklein, Croft, Roberts and Skinner Races
Republicans control the Wisconsin State Senate 18-15. Only the 17 odd-numbered districts are on the ballot November 3. Democrats need a net gain of two seats to flip the chamber. Under the current maps, Republicans hold three districts that Kamala Harris carried in 2024. Those seats, plus one additional contest, are known as the “Core Four” and will decide the majority.
Senate District 17 features longtime Republican Howard Marklein against Democratic Rep. Jenna Jacobson. Marklein, who co-chairs the Joint Finance Committee, has represented the southwest Wisconsin district since 2015 after earlier Assembly service. No Republican presidential, gubernatorial or U.S. Senate candidate has carried the district since 2016, yet Marklein has consistently outperformed his party to win reelection.
Jacobson, a former Oregon Village Board member and in the Assembly since 2022, has received substantial Democratic committee support. Jacobson has also been accused of last-minute politicking to enhance her “bipartisan record” in anticipation for the showdown with Marklein and later doubled down. Marklein has emphasized agricultural road funding and bipartisan bills on postpartum coverage and sexual assault protections. The Wisconsin State Journal endorsed him which is a rarity for the State Journal to endorse Republicans.
Marklein has, once again, lived up to his reputation as a maniac on the doors while insiders have secretly questioned Jacobson’s work ethic. Couple that with the spot-on work of Team Marklein in terms of corner-to-corner district outreach, effective non-partisan and parochial messaging, and a plan that seems to be driving the debate in this race, and you can see how Marklein could pull it out once again in a tough environment in a tough district. Key feedback on doors has been focused on Marklein’s work across the aisle, to address rural concerns and to cut taxes to make life more affordable for his own constituents. Insiders believe that the Democrat Jacobson and her friends will actually outspend Marklein and the Republicans in this seat. Jacobson is closing in on $4 million spent mark while Marklein is somewhere in the $2.5 million neighborhood.
Senate District 21 is open after Republican Van Wanggaard retired. Franklin businessman Jim Croft faces Democrat Trevor Jung, Racine’s transit and mobility director and a former city alder. The redrawn Racine-Milwaukee County district went narrowly for Harris and Baldwin in 2024. Croft, a data analyst and small business owner, advanced unopposed from the Republican primary. Both parties treat the seat as essential to chamber control, especially for Republicans as this district is the more favorable for conservatives. Republicans may have been asleep at the switch here, allowing a false and made-up TV attack against Croft to go unanswered for far too long.
Good news for Republicans is that Croft has been hitting the doors hard from the start, while Trevor Jung has faced controversy and a possible investigation into whether he campaigned while on government time. Insider intel tells us that voters in the 21st Senate District are uniquely concerned about healthcare costs, and Croft’s support of healthcare price transparency is a simple, winning message that is earning him support across the district. Insider intel suggests that Jung and company have outspent Croft and company $3 million to $2 million.
Senate District 5 is open after Republican Rob Hutton retired. Pewaukee physical therapist and small-business owner Mike Roberts faces Democratic Rep. Robyn Vining of Wauwatosa. The western Milwaukee suburbs and eastern Waukesha district has trended Democratic, with Harris carrying it by roughly six points in 2024. This is the first election under the new maps for the seat. Vining flipped an Assembly seat under previous maps and has focused on healthcare and education. Roberts, an eighth-generation Wisconsinite who founded Wisconsin Orthopedic Physical Therapy, emphasizes property tax relief and regulatory reduction.
Democrats view Senate District 5 as a top pickup opportunity, but Roberts has proven to be an effective messenger, fundraiser, and a madman on the doors. Social media phony Vining spends more time shooting content than actually meeting voters in the district. Dem insiders insist that this race is done and the seat is securely in the pick up column. Whatever the outcome, Roberts is widely regarded as the most promising of all the new Republican candidates. Remember his name.
Senate District 31 has Democratic incumbent Jeff Smith of Brunswick facing Republican Michele Magadance Skinner, an Eau Claire County supervisor. The Chippewa Valley district includes Eau Claire County and parts of Chippewa, Dunn and Trempealeau counties. A Dane County judge rejected the Democrats weak and crass attempt to keep Skinner off the ballot. Skinner, from Altoona, is a longtime journalist in the area and a business owner, called the suit a political attack that backfired. She previously ran for Assembly and came up short in the 2024 election.
Smith has served since 2018 after earlier Assembly service and Republican insiders believe that Smith votes more often like a Madison Democrat instead of the independent, common-sense centrist that he tries to pass himself off as. The Dem Smith has spent somewhere in the $700,000 to $800,000 dollars range while Skinner is closing in on $1.5 million spent. Are the Dems asleep at the switch here or do they have internal polling that shows it is already in the bag?
Luckily for all of us, we will find out the answers to all of these questions next Tuesday, November 3rd.
Don’t forget to vote.
