Socialist Rep. Francesca Hong has opened a commanding lead in the Democratic primary for governor, according to a new Marquette University Law School Poll released Wednesday.
The survey of 407 Democratic primary voters, conducted July 22-27, shows Hong at 38%, followed by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 16% and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley at 7%. Former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan and state Sen. Kelda Roys each registered 2%. Thirty-four percent of respondents remain undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 6.6 percentage points.
When undecided voters indicated a preference, Hong’s support increased to 46%, Barnes’s to 21%, and Crowley’s to 11%.
These results represent a notable increase in Hong’s lead. In Marquette’s previous survey, conducted July 8-16 before Crowley’s return and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez’s withdrawal, Hong had 26% to Barnes’s 15%, with nearly half of voters undecided.
The poll also measured awareness of Gov. Tony Evers’ endorsement of Crowley. Sixty-two percent of Democratic primary voters said they had heard about the endorsement, while 38% had not. Asked whether the endorsement made them more or less likely to support Crowley, 36% said more likely, 9% said less likely, and 56% said it made no difference.
The final pre-primary poll was conducted less than two weeks before the August 11 primary and one day after the candidates’ only televised debate. Hong, a democratic socialist and Madison lawmaker, has now led in several consecutive surveys of the Democrat field. Her support has increased steadily from single digits earlier in the cycle.
Republicans have indicated they consider Hong the likely nominee. Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate for governor, has described the Democratic primary as a contest that is shifting further left, citing Hong’s radical statements and socialist policy positions.
The Marquette numbers underscore the challenge facing establishment-backed alternatives. Crowley, who re-entered the race with Evers’ endorsement, and Barnes have not closed the gap despite efforts to consolidate moderate and institutional support. Brennan and Roys remain in single digits.
With early voting underway and the primary days away, the latest data positions Hong as the clear favorite to emerge as the Democratic nominee.
