In several Wisconsin Assembly districts that range from lean Democratic to lean Republican, challengers are taking on incumbents in races that could swing either way or even defy national trends for an upset. Anything is on the table. A competitive primary looms on one side in each, deciding the nominee who will face the sitting lawmaker or compete for the open seat. Primaries and candidate quality can upend expectations in these battlegrounds. Here is how the races start.
Assembly District 21: Lean D
No incumbent holds this Milwaukee County district after electoral juggernaut Republican Jessie Rodriguez decided not to run for reelection. Most of the district lies in Oak Creek, making Democratic candidate and Oak Creek Mayor Dan Bukiewicz a huge find for his party. He brings executive experience from city hall and leadership in the Milwaukee Building and Construction Trades Council. His primary opponent, David Liners, carries endorsements from Democrat Socialist Ryan Clancy. The race starts as Lean Democrat. However, If Liners wins the primary, the contest shifts to a toss-up. On the Republican side, fresh challenger Dylan Pfaffenbach stands alone after Veronica Diaz was struck from ballot due to a successful challenge of her nomination papers. Pfaffenbach has an opportunity to appeal to a younger populist audience with his new voice in the race, but faces an uphill climb.
Assembly District 26: Lean D
Democratic incumbent Joe Sheehan has protected himself politically in this eastern Sheboygan County seat that starts as Lean Democratic. He voted for the state budget and the bipartisan surplus deal in a move that undoubtedly will blunt some attacks. Still, he is not immune from pressure. Republicans will choose their nominee in a competitive primary. John Belanger, a former alderman, carries the highest name ID and could contest Sheehan immediately. Tyler Schneekloth and James Brotz maintain smaller presences but focus on anti-data center messaging. The GOP primary winner will test whether Sheehan’s defensive record holds.
Assembly District 61: Lean R
Republican incumbent Bob Donovan enters as the early favorite in this southwest suburban Milwaukee County district. His years on the Milwaukee Common Council give him high name ID across the area while Democrats face one of the largest a competitive primaries this cycle among three candidates. Healthcare specialist Brian Bock and veteran Ben Brist appear more mainstream and could mount solid challenges. Lawanda Chambers carries the controversial Ryan Clancy endorsement. If she wins the primary, the stark contrast between anti-cop messaging and Donovan’s pro-police record would prove difficult to overcome against a well-known incumbent, even in a favorable national year.
Assembly District 92: Lean R
This more rural district starts Lean Republican and presents maybe the toughest test for any Democrat trying to unseat incumbent Clint Moses. The Democratic primary features Jeremiah Fredrickson, a local business owner and coach with established community connections, against Mel M. Marin, who ran for school board but offers little other public record. A tactful Democrat would be needed to make the race competitive. Moses holds the initial edge and if Jeremiah doesn’t win the Democrat primary, you could probably move this closer to Likely R in November.
