The latest Marquette University Law School Poll shows a much tighter race than the wave narrative suggests. Democratic leads on generic ballot measures have shrunk, leaving Republicans running nearly even with Democrats at the national level. These trends could leave Democrats wondering how a seemingly unpopular Donald Trump midterm could end up as a dead heat.
Now that ballot access is closed, the field is set. On top of recent polling, we have another data point showing that the midterms may break historical trends once again.
In 2024, the first cycle under the new legislative maps, Democrats fielded candidates in 97 out of 99 Assembly districts after being invigorated by the prospects of new maps. That seemed to be one of the highest in recent memory with over 120 total Democratic candidates. There were only 16 uncontested races total between the two parties as Republicans fielded in 85 districts that cycle.
This year Republicans are matching or tying that same 97 district benchmark in the Assembly. That level of field operation has not been the norm for modern Republicans in Wisconsin. It reflects the same strategic decision both parties now make under new maps: prioritize near-universal ballot presence instead of ceding districts. It is a direct counter to any claim that Republicans are conceding ground in a supposed “wave” year.
In the 17 Senate districts up this cycle, Democrats put candidates in all 17. Republicans put candidates in 15 of the 17. The two districts without a Republican are both safe Democrat seats in Madison and Milwaukee. Senate districts are simply larger and there are only 17 of them to cover. That makes recruitment easier. Assembly districts are smaller, more local, and there are 99 of them, which is no easy feat. Finding serious candidates for that many tighter races requires more work and stronger local networks. The Assembly map is the harder test, and that is where Republican district coverage now matches the high bar Democrats set two years ago.
When a party leaves multiple districts without any candidate, the other side gets a free pass. Every additional district with a Republican name forces Democrats to spend even a small amount of time and money defending ground they would rather attack. It prevents Democrats from an easy path to November.
Fifteen of 17 Senate districts contested and 97 Assembly districts covered is not token opposition. It is proof that Republicans refused to write off territory before the first vote, even in the less traditionally Republican areas of the state.
Don’t know what district you live in? Use the Wisconsin State Legislature’s tool to find what district is in your backyard and use the Wisconsin Election Commission to see who will be on your ballot.
