As Wisconsinites reflect on the midterm elections and Republican defeats both nationally and here in the Badger State, let us not too quickly forget the victories that did happen. In northern Wisconsin, Michael Alfonso was victorious, state Republicans in northern districts held onto the vast majority of their seats, and by and large Tom Tiffany carried the Northwoods vote.
There is plenty to be disappointed by, and that is understandable. However, while many claim the Republican Party in Wisconsin is on its last breath, that is far from true in the most reliably red part of the state: the Northwoods.
Take, for example, Michael Alfonso’s race against Democrat Fred Clark. Alfonso won by a double-digit margin and will become the youngest member of Congress when sworn in next year. Yes, his margin of victory is smaller than those of his predecessor, Congressman Tom Tiffany. And yes, Alfonso’s margin is closer to former Congressman Sean Duffy’s initial victory. Duffy, Alfonso’s father-in-law, won the 7th Congressional District by 7.7 points back in 2010.
However, Sean Duffy would have welcomed a solid double-digit margin in 2010, when that election was far from a given. People in the Northwoods hardly need reminding, but before 2010, the 7th CD had not voted for a Republican candidate since 1969, as Democrat Dave Obey occupied the seat for 42 years. Michael Alfonso may not have outpaced northern Democrats to the degree Tiffany did in recent cycles, but a win remains a win worth celebrating. As time goes on, he will certainly need to expand support in hubs like Wausau and Superior, but the 7th CD is far from flipping back to the Obey era.
At the state level, there is a mixed bag of emotions. Republican Assemblyman Patrick Snyder lost his reelection bid to Democrat John Kroll in a competitive Wausau-area seat. But across other Northwoods contests, Republicans maintained a firm hold.
Assembly members Callahan, Mursau, Summerfield, Hurd, Krug, Spiros, and Jacobson all secured comfortable victories, while State Senators Corey Tomczyk and Romaine Quinn delivered solid wins in their respective districts. Anyone claiming Republican support is dwindling across the Northwoods is overlooking the numbers.
As for the gubernatorial race, Congressman Tom Tiffany lost a hard-fought campaign. Yet a closer look at the county-level data shows northern Wisconsin turned out heavily for Tiffany, with comfortable majorities across Lincoln County where Tom led with 60.9%, Vilas 61.5%, Iron 61.7%, Price 63.8%, Forest 64.4%, Langlade 65.7%, and Florence with 72.6%. These are good numbers. The structural challenge for any candidate from the Northwoods is that winning a statewide contest in Wisconsin requires substantial tallies in the higher-density suburban and urban areas surrounding Milwaukee and Madison.
This raises a broader strategic question: Can a northern candidate build a winning statewide coalition, or are candidates rooted in Waukesha, Washington, or the Fox Valley better positioned to cross the finish line? Historical precedent suggests that geographic base matters significantly when trying to build a statewide majority.
Ultimately, conservative support in the Northwoods remains robust. But as the era of Dave Obey demonstrated, political dominance requires continuous effort. Recognizing what worked in the Northwoods, and where the party needs to grow statewide, is the first step toward building a stronger coalition for the next cycle.
