Democrat David Crowley leads Republican Tom Tiffany 51% to 44% among likely voters in the final Marquette Law School Poll of the Wisconsin governor’s race, released Wednesday, six days before the November 3 election. Four percent are undecided.
Among all registered voters, the race is tighter. Crowley has 47%, Tiffany has 44%, and 9% are undecided. That 3-point gap sits inside the poll’s margin of error.
The poll interviewed 818 registered voters October 14-22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 points. The likely voter sample is 668, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 points, according to Marquette. The October 21 WISN 12 debate fell in the last two days of the field period, WISN noted.
In September, Crowley led 49% to 46% with likely voters and 46% to 45% with registered voters, as the Heartland Post reported at the time.
Enthusiasm Gap
The difference between the two numbers is turnout. Among registered voters, 84% of Democrats say they are certain to vote or have already voted. Only 77% of Republicans say the same. Both numbers dipped 1 point from September. Among independents, 64% are certain to vote, up 3 points, according to the poll.
Democrats also lead on enthusiasm, 57% to 49%, the same 8-point margin as in September.
That is the gap Tiffany has to close with Republican voters in the final week.
Independents Picked a Side
The biggest shift came from independents. Among likely voters, Crowley’s share of independents jumped from 44% in September to 56% in October. Tiffany rose from 18% to 26%. Undecided independents fell from 38% to 18%.
Tiffany’s support among Republican likely voters slipped from 95% to 92%. Crowley’s support among Democrats rose from 96% to 98%.
Among Republican likely voters, 82% approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance. Marquette found that Republicans who approve of Trump are virtually unanimous behind Tiffany.
Crowley Still Underwater
Crowley’s favorable rating climbed from 31% to 37%, but 44% still view him unfavorably, a net of minus 7. Tiffany sits at 40% favorable and 50% unfavorable, a net of minus 10. His favorable rating rose 1 point, and his unfavorable rating rose 5 points.
The Milwaukee County executive gained ground on likability this month, but more voters still dislike him than like him. The same holds for his agenda. Among registered voters, 36% mostly agree with Crowley’s positions and proposals, 39% mostly disagree, and 25% have not heard enough. In September, 32% agreed, and 39% disagreed.
For Tiffany, 39% mostly agree, and 44% mostly disagree, with 16% unable to say. In September, 40% agreed and 41% disagreed.
Tiffany Owns Taxes
Asked which candidate would do more on four issues, voters picked Tiffany on reducing taxes, Marquette reported. Crowley was seen as better on making health care more affordable, improving education and handling data centers.
Legislature and Attorney General
The generic legislative ballot tracks the governor’s race. Likely voters favor Democrats 51% to 44%. Registered voters split 47% to 45%, a 2-point gap inside the margin of error.
Sixty percent of registered voters say they prefer the governor and Legislature to be from the same party. Thirty-eight percent favor divided government. Independents split evenly, 49% to 49%.
In the attorney general race, Democratic incumbent Josh Kaul is viewed favorably by 23% and unfavorably by 20%. After nearly eight years in office, 56% still have no opinion of him. Republican Eric Toney, the Fond du Lac County district attorney, is at 13% favorable, 13% unfavorable, and 72% with no opinion, the poll found.
