Tim Michels lost the 2022 governor’s race by 90,239 votes, and almost a third of that came from one place: Waukesha County, where he finished 28,920 votes behind Scott Walker’s 2018 margin. Tom Tiffany does not need a miracle on Tuesday. He needs those votes back, and the polls say he is behind.
A Research Co. survey from October 30 to November 1 puts David Crowley ahead 50 to 45 among likely voters, while the final Marquette Law School poll shows a 51 to 44 lead. However, as Dan O’Donnell noted, the same Marquette poll reports a 47 to 44 race among all registered voters. An internal survey obtained by the Heartland Post finds Crowley with a two-point lead, but Tiffany leads in every region outside Madison and Milwaukee.
Wisconsin does not do landslides in November. Tony Evers beat Scott Walker by 29,227 votes in 2018. Joe Biden carried the state by 20,682 votes in 2020. Donald Trump won it back by 29,397 votes in 2024, the same night Eric Hovde came up 28,781 votes short against Tammy Baldwin. Those are margins you can make up in a handful of counties.
Below is a county-by-county guide for Tuesday night, using data from the last four November elections and benchmarks for a successful Tiffany outcome.
The Math Behind the Map
Start with the last governor’s race. Tim Michels lost to Evers by 90,239 votes in 2022, 51.2 to 47.8 percent, out of 2,656,490 votes cast. That is a 3.4-point gap.
The following analysis uses a straightforward benchmark: add 3.4 points to Michels’ 2022 margin in each county. If Tiffany exceeds this number across all counties, he eliminates the 90,239-vote deficit, as 3.4 percent of 2,656,490 votes is approximately 90,300. Meeting or surpassing this benchmark in a county indicates Tiffany is on track there; falling short means he must compensate elsewhere. This is a uniform-swing benchmark based on actual results, not a forecast.
The other number that matters is what Milwaukee and Dane counties hand the Democrat, against what the rest of Wisconsin hands the Republican:
- 2018 governor: Milwaukee and Dane gave Evers a combined 288,915-vote margin. The other 70 counties gave Walker 259,688. Walker lost.
- 2022 governor: Milwaukee and Dane gave Evers 322,879. The rest of the state gave Michels just 232,640. Michels lost by more.
- 2024 president: Milwaukee and Dane gave Kamala Harris 366,811. The rest of the state gave Trump 396,208. Trump won.
- 2024 Senate: Milwaukee and Dane gave Baldwin 372,636. The rest of the state gave Hovde 343,855. Hovde lost.
In summary, Tiffany must ensure the 70 counties outside Milwaukee and Dane outvote these two Democratic strongholds. Addressing the 2022 decline in these counties is essential for his success.
1. Sauk County: The Truest Bellwether in Wisconsin
If you focus on one county, choose Sauk. It is the only county in Wisconsin to align with the statewide winner in all six major statewide races since 2018: Evers by 10.4 points in 2018, Biden by 1.7 in 2020, Evers by 6.7 in 2022, Trump by 1.7 (626 votes) in 2024, Baldwin by 1.4 in 2024, and Susan Crawford by 14.3 in the April 2025 Supreme Court race.
What a good Tiffany night looks like: losing Sauk by no more than 3.3 points, compared to Michels’ 6.7-point loss (1,937 votes). If Tiffany wins Sauk outright, as Trump did, he is very likely winning statewide.
2. Door County: Always Close, Always Telling
Door County is consistently competitive. Walker won it by 2.3 points (385 votes) in 2018. Biden carried it by 1.5, Evers by 4.8 in 2022, Harris by 2.2 (466 votes), and Baldwin by 2.7. While it did not align with the statewide winner in 2018 and 2024, Door best represents the swing voters who decide close races.
What a good Tiffany night looks like: Lose Door by no more than 1.4 points, or about 250 votes at 2022 turnout, compared to Michels’ 839-vote loss. A Tiffany win in Door, as Walker achieved in 2018, would be a positive indicator.
3. Kenosha County: The Blue-Collar Flip
Kenosha is a clear example of a county shifting away from Democrats. Evers won it by 4.4 points in 2018, but it has since favored Republicans: Trump by 3.1 in 2020, Michels by 1.4 (892 votes) in 2022, Trump by 6.2 (5,652 votes) in 2024, and Hovde by 3.6.
What a good Tiffany night looks like: The benchmark is Michels plus 3.4, or a win of 4.8 points, about 3,100 votes at 2022 turnout. Hovde’s 3.6-point win was not enough to carry the state. Tiffany wants to look like Trump here, winning by 5 or 6 points.
4. Racine County: Steady Red, but It Has to Be Redder
Racine has voted Republican in every November statewide race since 2018, with margins consistently around 5 points: Walker by 4.9, Trump by 4.1 in 2020, Michels by 5.1, Trump by 6.2, and Hovde by 5.1 in 2024. However, Republicans have lost four of those five races despite this consistency.
What a good Tiffany night looks like: Michels won Racine by 4,118 votes. The benchmark is 8.5 points, roughly 6,900 votes at 2022 turnout. That would be a new high-water mark for this stretch, so even a Trump-like 6-point win, with Tiffany banking extra votes elsewhere, would keep him in the hunt.
5. Brown and Outagamie Counties: The Fox Valley Engine
Green Bay and Appleton present growth opportunities for Republicans. An internal poll obtained by the Heartland Post shows Tiffany leading 53 to 47 in this media market.
Brown went for Walker by 8.4 points (9,700 votes) in 2018, Trump by 7.2 in 2020, Michels by only 4.5 (5,099 votes) in 2022, Trump by 7.5 (11,195 votes) in 2024, and Hovde by 6.0. Outagamie went for Walker by 10.9, Michels by 7.0 (6,029 votes), Trump by 10.2 (11,389 votes), and Hovde by 8.9.
What a good Tiffany night looks like: In Brown, the benchmark is 7.9 points, about 9,000 votes at 2022 turnout. That is basically Walker’s 2018 margin. In Outagamie, the benchmark is 10.4 points, about 9,000 votes. Michels left about 4,600 votes on the table in Brown alone compared to Walker. Tiffany needs them back.
6. Winnebago County: Oshkosh Is a Tell
Winnebago has voted Republican in every November race since 2018, but by narrow margins: Walker by 3.6, Trump by 4.0 in 2020, Michels by 1.0 (730 votes), Trump by 4.7 in 2024, and Hovde by 2.7.
What a good Tiffany night looks like: The benchmark is a 4.4-point win, about 3,300 votes at 2022 turnout, which is right in line with what Walker and Trump did. If Tiffany is running at Trump’s 2024 pace here, the Fox Valley is doing its job.
7. Waukesha County: Where the Race Can Be Won or Lost
Waukesha is critical for Tiffany. In 2018, Walker won the county by 33.6 points (74,568 votes). In 2022, Michels’ margin dropped to 20.3 points (45,648 votes), a decline of 28,920 votes, which accounts for nearly a third of his statewide loss. Trump won Waukesha by 19.7 points (54,290 votes) in 2024, and Hovde by 21.1 points (57,809 votes).
The early signs are encouraging. The Heartland Post reported that Waukesha and Washington counties have been turning in a much bigger share of early ballots than they did four years ago. Tiffany has been working the county hard, including a get-out-the-vote rally in Waukesha with Brett Favre.
What a good Tiffany night looks like: The benchmark is a 23.7-point win, about 53,300 votes at 2022 turnout. Every point of margin in Waukesha is worth about 2,250 votes. If Waukesha turnout climbs back toward presidential levels (275,787 votes in 2024, against 224,603 in 2022), a 23-point margin would bank more than 60,000 votes, and that alone covers a big piece of the Milwaukee deficit.
8. Ozaukee and Washington Counties: The Rest of the WOW Wall
Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties provided Walker with a 120,498-vote advantage in 2018, but only 79,422 for Michels in 2022. This 41,076-vote decline in the WOW counties accounts for nearly half of Michels’ statewide loss.
Ozaukee is the warning light. It went for Walker by 26.7 points in 2018, Michels by 10.9 in 2022, and Trump by 10.4 in 2024. Washington County is the backstop: Walker by 45.7 points, Michels by 37.9 (28,051 votes), and Trump and Hovde by about 36.
What a good Tiffany night looks like: In Ozaukee, the benchmark is 14.3 points, about 7,500 votes at 2022 turnout. In Washington, it is 41.3 points, about 30,600 votes. Hovde already netted 33,110 votes in Washington in 2024, so a big turnout there makes that number very gettable.
9. Marathon County: Anchor of the 7th District
Wausau and Marathon County are the largest prize in the 7th Congressional District, which Tiffany has represented since 2020. Walker won Marathon by 20.6 points (12,829 votes) in 2018, Trump by 18.0 in 2020, Michels by 17.3 (10,697 votes) in 2022, Trump by 18.6 (14,684 votes) in 2024, and Hovde by 16.5.
What a good Tiffany night looks like: The benchmark is 20.7 points, about 12,800 votes at 2022 turnout. That is Walker’s 2018 number. This is the home-district bump Tiffany should deliver: voters who have sent him to Congress know him, and they need to show up for him.
10. Oneida and Vilas Counties: Tiffany’s Backyard
Tiffany built his life and business in Minocqua, in Oneida County, and the Northwoods is where his margin should swell above the usual Republican number. Oneida went for Walker by 17.3 points in 2018, Michels by 13.0 (2,630 votes) in 2022, Trump by 17.6 in 2024, and Hovde by 14.7. Vilas went for Walker by 26.4, Michels by 21.9 (2,895 votes), Trump by 23.0, and Hovde by 21.8.
Do not let the spring scare you. Liberal Chris Taylor even carried Vilas County in April, but spring court races draw a smaller, different electorate. November is Tiffany’s turf.
What a good Tiffany night looks like: The benchmarks are 16.4 points in Oneida and 25.3 points in Vilas. Watch the neighbors too: Lincoln (Michels by 21.1, Trump by 25.1) and Price (Michels by 25.1, Trump by 31.1). A favorite son should be running ahead of Michels across the whole Northwoods.
11. Grant, Crawford, Richland and Vernon: The Driftless Flips
Southwest Wisconsin’s hill country has shifted significantly to the right. In 2018, Evers carried Grant by 0.8 points, Crawford by 3.6, Richland by 4.8, and Vernon by 2.1. By 2024, Trump led Grant by 18.1, Crawford by 13.8, Richland by 13.1, and Vernon by 7.8. Hovde also carried all four counties.
Michels underperformed here in 2022. He won Grant by 6.8, Crawford by 0.8, and Richland by 3.0, and lost Vernon by 1.4.
What a good Tiffany night looks like: The benchmarks are Grant by 10.2, Crawford by 4.2, Richland by 6.4, and Vernon by 2.0. These counties are small, but they are a gut check. If Tiffany is winning them by Hovde-style margins or better, rural Wisconsin is turning out. Keep an eye on Juneau too, which went from Walker by 14.2 in 2018 to Trump by 32.1 in 2024.
12. Milwaukee and Dane Counties: The Democratic Baseline
Crowley serves as the Milwaukee County executive, making this his home base. Republicans are unlikely to win either county; the key question is the margin.
In Milwaukee, Evers netted 138,069 votes in 2018 and 148,602 in 2022, when turnout fell from 393,877 to 346,889. Biden netted 183,045, Harris 178,270, and Baldwin 183,702. In Dane, Evers netted 150,846 in 2018 and 174,277 in 2022. Harris and Baldwin each netted about 188,500 to 189,000.
What a good Tiffany night looks like: The benchmarks are a loss of no more than 39.4 points in Milwaukee, about 136,800 votes at 2022 turnout, and no more than 54.5 points in Dane, about 164,000 votes. If Milwaukee turnout sags the way it did in 2022, that is good news for Tiffany. If Crowley drives Milwaukee toward presidential-year margins, the WOW counties and the Fox Valley have to answer.
When the Votes Come In
Do not overinterpret early Milwaukee results. Nine Milwaukee County municipalities, including the City of Milwaukee, count absentee ballots centrally, so initial results reflect only in-person Election Day votes. Absentee totals, which lean Democratic, are added later in a single batch. City absentee ballots may be dropped off at Central Count until 8 p.m. on Election Day.
In the August 11 primary, Milwaukee’s central count results were uploaded around 1 a.m. the following morning. A significant late shift toward Crowley is expected when these results are reported. This is standard, which is why margins in the counties above are more important than who is leading at 11 p.m.
What a Winning Night Looks Like
Key benchmarks include: Waukesha above 23 points, Washington above 41, Brown near 8, and Outagamie near 10. Kenosha, Winnebago, and Racine should match or exceed Trump’s 2024 performance. The Northwoods should outperform Michels for its congressman. Sauk and Door should be within a few points or flipped. Milwaukee should remain close to its 2022 margin rather than its 2024 margin.
Michels lost by 90,239 votes statewide, a 3.4-point deficit. Tom Tiffany can address this gap by improving performance in each county.
