Democrats lead in three of four governor matchups; 9% of Trump voters express regret over their vote
Democratic candidates hold narrow leads over Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in hypothetical 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial races, according to a poll released Monday by the League of American Workers and conducted by TechnoMetrica (TIPP).
The online survey of 1,495 registered Wisconsin voters, including a subsample of 1,175 likely voters, was conducted March 13-19. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 2.9 percentage points for likely voters. Results were weighted by gender, age, race, education, and prior voting to align with known benchmarks.
Among likely voters, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez led Tiffany 44% to 41%, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes led 43% to 41%, and Milwaukee Mayor David Crowley led 42% to 41%. In a fourth pairing, Tiffany led state Rep. Francesca Hong 43% to 40%. On the generic congressional ballot for 2026, 45% of likely voters preferred Democrats, while 41% preferred Republicans.
President Donald Trump’s job approval among likely voters was 38% approve, 53% disapprove, and 9% unsure. Of those who voted for Trump in 2024, 85% did not regret their vote, 9% did, and 6% were unsure.
Regarding foreign policy, 40% supported U.S. military action in Iran, while 50% opposed it.
The poll found Democrats significantly more enthusiastic about voting in 2026. Among likely voters, 51% of Democrats described themselves as extremely enthusiastic, compared to 35% of Republicans.
The League of American Workers, which focuses on trade, immigration, and working-class issues, commissioned the survey. TechnoMetrica selected the sample from its national network of online panel partners.
Wisconsin voters also weighed in on K-12 education, a key issue in the governor’s race. Seventy-six percent said education policy was very or somewhat important to their vote. Sixty-three percent viewed low fourth-grade reading scores as evidence that the system is failing. 43% rated the school system excellent or good, while 51% rated it fair or poor. Property taxes were identified as the largest taxpayer burden by 45%.
The survey’s 2024 presidential vote recall showed 44% for Trump, 43% for Kamala Harris, 3% for other candidates, closely reflecting the state’s actual results.
Party identification broke down as 32% Democrat, 33% Republican, 30% independent or other, and 5% unsure. Ideological identification was 35% conservative, 34% moderate, and 24% liberal.
Previous League of American Workers/TIPP surveys in Wisconsin, including one from February, showed similar trends: Democrats leading the generic ballot and Trump’s approval in the low 40s or below. Full crosstabs and methodology are available on the TIPP Insights website.
