Marquette Poll Shows Francesca Hong Leading Wisconsin Democratic Gubernatorial Primary, But High Undecideds and Recent Dropouts Limit Relevance
A new Marquette Law School Poll finds State Rep. Francesca Hong leading the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor after a chaotic week that saw Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez leave the race amid a scandal and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley jump back in.
Conducted July 8-16 among likely Democratic primary voters, the poll shows Hong at 26%, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 15%, Rodriguez at 11%, Joel Brennan at 2%, and Kelda Roys at 1%, with roughly 45% undecided. Pollsters were in the field occurred after Crowley initially dropped out but before Rodriguez’s exit, leading some to question its relevance given how shaken up the field has become.
The poll asked voters for their second choices. Among Rodriguez supporters, reallocating second preferences boosts Hong to 27% and Barnes to 18%, with smaller shares going to other candidates and many still undecided.
Ideological breakdowns reveal Hong’s support base is concentrated among liberals. Among Democratic primary voters identifying as very liberal (24% of the sample), 58% back Hong, along with 26% of somewhat liberal voters. Support drops sharply to just 8% among the 41% who describe themselves as moderate or conservative. Very liberal voters are also the least undecided at 24%, compared to 39% of somewhat liberals and 60% of moderates/conservatives.
Hong is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), and the poll tested voter reactions to the party. 25% viewed the DSA favorably (43% unfavorably), while the generic “democratic socialist” term drew 25% favorable and 55% unfavorable. Views were overwhelmingly positive among very liberal Democrats but only slightly net positive among moderates and conservatives, with many saying they hadn’t heard enough.
Among Democrats who have picked a candidate, electability looms large: 67% say it is extremely important to choose someone who can beat the Republican in November. Of those with a preference, 64% are certain about their choice, rising to 72% among Hong backers.
Marquette pollster Charles Franklin noted that the sequence of candidate exits and re-entries “leaves a lot of uncertainty” in a contest many voters have followed loosely, as evidenced by the high undecided rate. Other recent surveys show Hong with stronger leads, but the fluid field and low engagement suggest the race could shift quickly in the final stretch.
