Francesca Hong’s grip on the Democratic nomination for governor tightened Wednesday after three separate polls, including the nonpartisan Marquette Law School survey and internal polls from her two main rivals — all showed the democratic socialist leading the field.
Marquette’s July 8-16 poll of likely Democratic primary voters put Hong at 26%, Mandela Barnes at 15%, and the already-withdrawn Sara Rodriguez at 11%. Crowley and Brennan registered in the low single digits. Nearly half remained undecided.
Crowley’s internal PPP poll (July 20-22) reported Hong at 35%, Barnes at 15%, and Crowley at 14%. Barnes’ Impact Research poll showed Hong at 39% and Barnes at 26%. The consistent results across public and private polls indicate that Hong has consolidated support among progressive voters and is well positioned for the August 11 primary.
That primary election dominance comes with a clear cost in the general. The same Marquette survey found Hong tied with Republican Tom Tiffany at 44% among likely voters and trailing 40% to 43% among registered voters. In contrast, Barnes led Tiffany among likely voters. Hong’s primary ceiling remains in the mid-to-high 30s at best, leaving a majority of Democratic voters either undecided or supporting other candidates. It remains to be seen whether those voters will gravitate toward Hong in a general or if she’ll give moderate establishment democrats a reason to stay home in November.
Hong’s record makes the general-election numbers unsurprising. The Madison state representative is a socialist who has openly embraced the Democratic Socialists of America platform, called for abolishing the police, and supports abolishing ICE. Those positions energize the activist left but have repeatedly proven toxic with moderates and independents in purple Wisconsin — the same voters who handed Trump the state in 2024. The same Marquette Law School Poll that showed her leading the primary found net favorability for the “Democratic Socialists of America” at –18 and for “Democratic Socialists” at –30 among likely voters — deeply underwater numbers that underscore how her brand of politics alienates the broader electorate beyond the progressive base.
The establishment’s late scramble to block Hong only underscored the problem. Earlier this month, David Crowley withdrew, endorsed Sara Rodriguez, then re-entered with Gov. Tony Evers’ blessing and a six-figure ad buy attacking “candidates Republicans know they can beat.” His own internal showed the maneuver failed. Barnes, despite greater name recognition, remains stuck well behind, consistently in second place.
Poll trackers on social media noted Hong’s fourth consecutive Marquette lead. Still, others pointed out the obvious: Democrats are on the verge of nominating a candidate whose support is concentrated among the party’s far left wing while the broader electorate remains unconvinced.
With early voting underway, more than 80,000 votes already cast, and a little less than three weeks until the primary, Hong appears well positioned to secure the nomination. The data suggest Wisconsin Democrats have prioritized ideological alignment over general election competitiveness.
