Following one of the wildest weeks Wisconsin politics has seen in years, the latest Marquette Law School Poll—the gold standard of Wisconsin polling—finally gives us a look at where the Democratic primary stood before everything was turned upside down.
The poll is admittedly flawed, being that it was conducted prior to Sara Rodriguez’s departure from the race and David Crowley’s subsequent re-entry into the race with Tony Evers’s backing in a last-ditch attempt to stop Francesca Hong. While these moves undoubtedly change the dynamics of the race, the poll still offers the best snapshot of where things stood before last week’s political chaos and gives us a better sense of where the race is headed in its closing weeks.
With that in mind, here are the biggest winners and losers from the July 22 Marquette Law School Poll.
Winner: Francesca Hong
For the fourth consecutive Marquette Law School Poll, Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong sits atop the Democratic field, expanding her advantage to a commanding 11-point lead.
The last Marquette poll, conducted in March, showed Hong leading with just 14% support, followed closely by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 11%, while a staggering 65% of Democratic voters remained undecided. Four months later, Hong has nearly doubled her support to 26%, with Barnes a distant second at 15%. Former Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez—who has since suspended her campaign after a campaign finance scandal—finished third at 11%.
When Rodriguez was removed from the ballot and respondents’ second-choice preferences were reallocated, Hong’s lead narrowed slightly, 27% to Barnes’ 18%. But that result comes with an important caveat: Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley was not included as a second-choice option because he had not yet re-entered the race. Given Crowley’s previous support for Rodriguez and his emergence as the Democratic establishment’s preferred candidate, it’s likely that at least some of Rodriguez’s support would have shifted to him rather than Barnes or Joel Brennan.
Perhaps most importantly for Hong, her support appears to be remarkably durable. 72 percent of her supporters said they would not consider another candidate—the highest level of loyalty in the field. She also led every age group except voters 60 and older, building especially large margins with younger Democrats. Among voters ages 18-29, Hong led Barnes 43% to 14%. Among those ages 30-44, she held a commanding 37% to 12% advantage. While younger voters have historically been a less-reliable voting block, they have also been the demographic that has powered DSA-backed victories around the country.
Hong also outperformed Barnes across both racial and income groups. Among voters earning less than $50,000 annually, she led by four points. That advantage grew to 17 points among voters earning between $50,000 and $99,999, and 12 points among six-figure earners. She led Barnes 27% to 15% among white voters and 21% to 12% among non-white voters.
The Marquette results also closely mirrored two campaign internal polls released the same day. A Crowley campaign poll showed Hong leading Barnes by 20 points, with Crowley one point behind Barnes in third. A Barnes campaign poll found a somewhat tighter contest, but still had Hong ahead 39% to 26%, with Crowley trailing at 11%.
Nearly half of Democratic voters remain undecided, meaning there’s still plenty of room for movement. But at this moment, Hong has established herself as the clear frontrunner. She has built a loyal base that appears resistant to outside persuasion and has opened leads across nearly every major demographic. In a race that has repeatedly defied expectations, nothing is guaranteed—but after this poll, the rest of the field is clearly chasing Francesca Hong.
Loser: Democratic Socialists
At first glance, it may seem odd to put Democratic Socialism in the “losers” column after naming Francesca Hong one of the biggest winners of the Marquette Poll. But the two are not mutually exclusive. In fact, the contrast helps explain why Democratic insiders have spent the past week scrambling to stop Hong’s momentum.
While Hong continues to expand her lead in the Democratic primary, the Democratic Socialist brand remains deeply unpopular with the broader Wisconsin electorate. That’s exactly why the Democratic establishment is panicking. Their fear isn’t that Hong can’t win a Democratic primary—it’s that they know she can, and likely will.
When asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Socialists of America, just 24% of respondents viewed the organization favorably compared to 43% who viewed it unfavorably, a net -18 rating. The broader “Democratic Socialist” label performed even worse, with just 25% holding a favorable opinion compared to 55% unfavorable—a staggering net -30.
To put those numbers in perspective, Democratic Socialists are less popular than both President Trump and the MAGA movement, which each posted a net -19 favorability rating. They are also less popular than the Democratic Party itself, which sits underwater at -23. The only thing tested in the Marquette Poll that performed worse than Democratic Socialism was data centers, which came in at a net -54.
The numbers become even more problematic when broken down by political affiliation. Independent voters gave the Democratic Socialist label a net -39 favorability rating—significantly worse than MAGA’s -31 among the same group. Among Republicans, Democratic Socialism is almost universally rejected, posting a staggering net -83 rating. The overwhelming disdain for Democratic Socialism has likely contributed to Republicans closing the enthusiasm gap in this most recent poll, with 79% of Republicans saying they are certain to vote compared to 84% of Democrats.
Despite that, Democratic Socialism remains popular inside today’s Democratic Party. A majority of Democrats (54%) hold a favorable view of Democratic Socialists compared to only 10% who view them negatively, helping explain why Hong continues to build a commanding lead in the primary.
And that’s the Democrats’ dilemma.
The same ideology fueling Hong’s rise with Democratic primary voters is deeply unpopular with the independents and swing voters Democrats will need in November. For a party that hoped to spend the fall making the election a referendum on Donald Trump, nominating an unapologetic Democratic Socialist threatens to shift the spotlight onto a label that, according to Marquette, is even less popular than Trump himself.
Winner: Tom Tiffany
While Democrats have spent the past several months locked in an increasingly bitter civil war between the grassroots and the party establishment, Tom Tiffany has largely had the race to himself.
On the air since April with little meaningful opposition, Tiffany has spent months introducing himself to voters and defining his message while Democrats have been consumed by a chaotic primary. As a result, Tiffany now boasts the highest name recognition of any candidate in the field, with 71% of voters saying they know enough about him to have an opinion. The next closest is former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 60% after his failed 2022 statewide campaign.
Tiffany also enters the second half of the race with the strongest favorability rating of any major candidate. Thirty-five percent of voters view the Northwoods congressman favorably compared to 36% unfavorably, for a net rating of -1. By comparison, Barnes posts the weakest numbers in the field at -8, while Democratic frontrunner Francesca Hong sits at -4. Those numbers will almost certainly shift once Democrats unite behind a nominee and begin spending millions attacking Tiffany, but for now, he is in an enviable position.
The head-to-head matchups tell a similar story. Tiffany led every Democratic candidate still in the race except one (more on this later)—including a three-point advantage over likely nominee Francesca Hong among registered voters. Against independents, Tiffany’s edge over Hong grew to seven points. Even former Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, widely viewed as Democrats’ strongest general election candidate before she suspended her campaign, managed only a one-point lead over Tiffany.
The issue landscape also appears favorable for Republicans. A majority of voters (51%) believe public schools are receiving enough money—or too much—from the state, while 58% say lowering property taxes is more important than increasing K-12 education spending. A majority (53%) supports deporting illegal immigrants, and 63% believe Wisconsin is headed in the wrong direction after eight years of Gov. Tony Evers. While affordability remains voters’ top concern by a wide margin, abortion—which has regularly hurt Republicans since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade—registered as the top issue for just 4% of respondents.
It’s still a difficult political environment for Republicans. Midterm elections are often challenging for the president’s party, and Democrats will almost certainly consolidate after the primary. But if Republicans were drawing up the ideal political landscape for Tom Tiffany, it would look a lot like this: a fractured Democratic Party, a financially well-positioned campaign, months of uncontested television time, an electorate focused on affordability and taxes, and a likely Democratic nominee carrying a political label that remains deeply unpopular with the broader electorate.
Loser: Kelda Roys
It truly could not have happened to a better person.
Despite spending more than half a million dollars on digital advertising. Despite the constant fearmongering about the “Trump regime.” Despite running an insane new ad claiming Donald Trump and Republicans are trying to “kill us.” Despite rushing to declare the Democratic primary a two-person race after Sara Rodriguez’s collapse. Despite confidently proclaiming she would “eviscerate” Tom Tiffany in the general election.
Kelda Roys is exactly where she started: dead last at 1%.
Roys has spent years positioning herself to become governor. She even began maneuvering for the office before Tony Evers had officially announced whether he would seek another term. This was supposed to be her moment—the progressive standard-bearer finally breaking through to become Wisconsin’s first female, and allegedly first LGBTQ, governor.
Instead, her campaign has flatlined.
Roys now trails Joel Brennan, a candidate so milquetoast that even milquetoast looks at him and thinks he could use some seasoning. She remains stuck at 1% despite securing the endorsement of WEAC, Wisconsin’s largest teachers union—long considered one of the most valuable endorsements in a Democratic primary.
The rest of the numbers aren’t much better. Roys posts a net favorability rating of -7, sits at -12 among union households despite making opposition to Act 10 a defining issue of her political career, and receives 0% support among Black Democratic voters.
The general election numbers are equally sobering. Roys performs worst of any Democratic candidate tested against Tom Tiffany, trailing the Republican congressman by four points among registered voters.
This marks the third unsuccessful bid for higher office in Roys’ political career—after losing a congressional primary to Mark Pocan and two campaigns for governor. For one of Wisconsin’s most openly ambitious politicians, the Marquette Poll delivered a harsh reality: after years of preparing for this opportunity, Democratic primary voters simply aren’t buying what she’s selling. Hopefully, she didn’t mortgage her house for this one.
Winner: Mandela Barnes
Following Sara Rodriguez’s shocking departure from the Democrat Primary and David Crowley’s re-entry into the race with the endorsement of Governor Tony Evers, Mandela Barnes felt like he was stuck in a political no-man’s land. His own Governor, whom he served under for four years as Lt. Governor prior to his failed bid for Senate in 2022, had spurned him, and calls for Barnes to drop out and endorse David Crowley in a Hail Mary attempt to deny Francesca Hong the nomination only grew louder. Mandela Barnes needed a lifeline. He got it in the Marquette Poll.
While the poll did not account for Crowley’s re-entry into the Race, the Marquette Poll showed Barnes as the only candidate really within striking distance of Francesca Hong. Trailing by 11 points in second place, Barnes performed the best amongst black voters–with 24% of the vote amongst the primary field–and also had a relatively high favorability rating in the City of Milwaukee.
More importantly, Barnes was the only candidate still in the race that beat Tom Tiffany in a head-to-head matchup, leading the Republican congressman 44-40 amongst registered voters and 47-42 amongst likely voters. This makes it far less likely that Barnes drops out of the race and falls in line behind Crowley.
One of the biggest knocks on Barnes’s candidacy is that he lost what many Democrats believe to be a winnable race against Ron Johnson in 2022. Many Democrat insiders simply view Barnes as damaged goods–a candidate who has already proven he can’t win statewide and whose baggage was just too much to be able to sell to Wisconsin voters. This poll gives the Barnes campaign something to point to when asked about his electability. He now gets to spend the closing weeks of the campaign bragging about–and fundraising off of–the fact that he is the only candidate in the race that beats Tom Tiffany in November, while attacking the frontrunner Hong for being too big of an electoral risk.
It is worth noting, however, that the Marquette Poll also showed Barnes beating Ron Johnson around the same time four years ago. A June poll showed Mandela Barnes with a 2% lead over Wisconsin’s senior Senator back in 2022, while an early August poll showed Barnes with a commanding 7-point lead amongst registered voters. Barnes would go on to narrowly lose by roughly 1 percentage point, a loss he pins on DC establishment Democrats abandoning his campaign.
Still, the Marquette Poll gives him some general election credibility that no other candidate in the race can claim at a pivotal point in the campaign. While it is still a tall task to be able to catch Francesca Hong at this point, Barnes can now make the appeal that it is him–not Crowley–that has the best chance of doing so.
Loser: The Democratic Establishment
While David Crowley, aka Dirt McGirk, wasn’t included in this iteration of the Marquette Poll, the Democratic establishment’s effort to stop Francesca Hong appears to be facing even steeper odds than it did a week ago.
Before Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez’s campaign collapsed, establishment Democrats had largely begun coalescing around her as the candidate they believed could block Hong from winning the nomination. Instead, Rodriguez finished a distant third at just 11% before suspending her campaign.
Rodriguez isn’t a perfect stand-in for Crowley, but her performance offers a good indication of where the establishment lane stood before Crowley re-entered the race. In fact, Crowley’s own internal poll had him at 14%, trailing both Hong and Mandela Barnes. That’s a noticeable improvement from the 3% support he registered in previous Marquette polls, but it also suggests he begins this race well behind the frontrunner with less than three weeks remaining.
The broader numbers don’t get much better for party insiders.
Hong’s lead has continued to grow, and the most liberal wing of the Democratic electorate—which is also among the most motivated to vote in an August primary—is firmly behind her. She is also running surprisingly well in Milwaukee, the very region Crowley would need to dominate to have any realistic path to the nomination. According to the crosstabs, Hong leads Barnes by 25 points in the City of Milwaukee while posting a +17 net favorability rating among Black voters statewide and +31 among Hispanic voters. Those are key constituencies Crowley will have to peel away if he hopes to engineer a late comeback.
The head-to-head polling created another headache for Democratic insiders. Not only does Hong trail Tom Tiffany in a hypothetical general election—reinforcing the establishment’s electability concerns—but Mandela Barnes is the only Democrat in the field who actually leads Tiffany. That gives Barnes every incentive to stay in the race rather than step aside for Crowley. If anything, Barnes can now argue he has the stronger electability case, making Gov. Tony Evers’ decision to endorse Crowley instead look even more curious.
The one bright spot for the establishment is Tony Evers himself. The outgoing governor remains Wisconsin’s most popular elected official, with a 51% job approval rating and a positive net favorability—the only major elected official in the poll to finish above water.
The hope inside Democratic circles is that Evers’ popularity will transfer to Crowley and quickly consolidate the anti-Hong vote. But if the Marquette Poll—and even Crowley’s own internal numbers—are any indication, the late push to stop Hong is facing an even steeper climb than party leaders likely anticipated.
Conclusion:
The Marquette Poll answered a lot of questions this week, but it also set the stage for an even bigger one. Can Tony Evers’ endorsement and David Crowley’s late re-entry fundamentally reshape a race that increasingly appears to belong to Francesca Hong? We’ll get that answer soon enough. Marquette has announced it will be back in the field next week, with a new poll scheduled for release on July 29—the day after Wisconsin Democrats square off in their first and only televised debate. After one of the wildest weeks in recent Wisconsin political history, the next seven days may be even more consequential.
