The latest Marquette Law School Poll shows David Crowley leading Tom Tiffany 49-46 among likely voters. It’s within the margin of error, which should tell you everything you need to know: in a year that history tells us should be dominated by Democrats, Wisconsin is once again a toss-up.
That’s not to say this race doesn’t still face real headwinds: gas prices are up, grocery prices haven’t come down, and voters are fatigued. But the Marquette Poll is a snapshot in time that shows a real opportunity for Congressman Tom Tiffany to take the lead in this race. First, let’s talk through the challenges, and then the opportunities, as I see them.
The Real Headwind
Only 16 percent of Wisconsin voters say they’re better off than a year ago, while inflation and the cost of living are the most important issues for 45% of registered voters. In normal years, economic woes would have Republicans up double digits. But polling still shows a statistically tied race in Wisconsin.
This is the environment we’re all fighting in right now. This race is about people’s wallets, their grocery bills, and whether they believe things are getting better or worse. Some people blame Democrats for rising property taxes and energy bills, while others blame Republicans for rising gas prices.
The Crowley Vulnerability We’re Not Exploiting Fast Enough
Here’s where our opportunity lies: Crowley is still unknown to 25 percent of voters. But this is critical: his unfavorable rating jumped 15 points since the last poll. As voters learn about him, they’re liking him less. Only 32% of voters agree with most of Crowley’s policy positions, compared to 40% for Tom Tiffany.
This tells us something important. Crowley hasn’t successfully introduced, or, as he would say, “re-introduced,” himself yet in a way that sticks positively. His record and his policy positions are driving people away as they learn more.
The Independent Voter Collapse Is Real
August poll: Crowley was winning independents 55-16.
September poll: Crowley 44, Tiffany 18.
An 11-point drop in a single month with swing voters.
Independents are the voters most concerned about the economy. They’re not ideologically locked in either direction. They’re asking one question: “Who do I trust to make my life better?” It’s clear from an 11-point drop in support for Crowley that he is not the answer to that question.
Candidates must turn out their base voters, but in Wisconsin, they must also win over critical independent voters. In a three-point race statewide, the independent swing is the margin. These voters are either checking out of the race or undecided, which means they are most likely to stay home on Election Day or cast their ballot for Tom Tiffany.
Tom Tiffany will need to persuade these undecided independent voters between now and November 3rd to secure the win.
The Turnout Problem
Crowley’s support is more concentrated among people likely to show up on Election Day, and enthusiasm continues to benefit Democrat voters in this poll. However, independents remain extremely unenthusiastic about voting.
This race is winnable, and the fundamentals are there. The economic environment is a tough headwind, but despite that, Tiffany and his team have kept the race competitive through the end of September. Crowley is still standing because he’s largely undefined, and because we haven’t closed the deal with independents who are clearly looking for a reason to move from undecided. Continuing to define Crowley negatively will help shore up independents and motivate base voters come Election Day.
The Bottom Line
