The new Marquette Law School Poll gives Democrat David Crowley a slim edge over Republican Tom Tiffany. But Tom Tiffany has closed the gap.
Among likely voters, Crowley leads 49 percent to 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided. Among all registered voters, Crowley leads 46 to 45, with 9 percent still on the fence, with the likely-voter margin of error at plus or minus 4.8 points and the registered-voter error at 4.3.
Marquette’s own August survey had Crowley up 49 to 44 among likely voters and dead even at 44 apiece among registered voters. Crowley did not grow. Tiffany did. Tiffany picked up 2 points with likely voters and 1 point with registered voters. The undecided pie shrank. That is movement toward the GOP nominee after a month of tax ads, crime spots, and Crowley lagging in fundraising numbers, spending his time in California and Washington DC. Tiffany has been hitting Crowley’s Milwaukee County record: five property tax hikes, a near-doubling of the sales tax, a cake-cutting celebration after the vote, and Crowley’s line that a sales tax increase would not be “a burden.” Crowley spent this week defending a California fundraiser with Kamala Harris and declining to rule out another county tax increase before Election Day.
Crowley is not running away. Tiffany is not buried. With 34 days until Nov. 3, a 3-point likely-voter spread and a 1-point registered-voter spread are a signal for Tiffany’s team to lock in, not a reason to pop champagne in Milwaukee County.
