The BOW region of Brown, Outagamie, and Winnebago counties has emerged as a new frontline for legislative control with Green Bay at the heart of it. Assembly Districts (AD) 88 and 89 sit at the center of both parties focus going into November as the parties split control between the two seats. Both delivered razor-thin margins in 2024 and remain toss-ups heading into the next cycle.
Incumbent Republican Ben Franklin in AD 88 represents De Pere, Allouez, Bellevue, and parts of Green Bay. Franklin narrowly won the seat in 2024 with 50.3% of the vote against Democrat challenger Christy Welch. AD 89 takes in the west side of Green Bay and Ashwaubenon and is represented by incumbent Democrat Ryan Spaude who defeated Republican Patrick Buckley with 51.3%. These were two of the closest Assembly races statewide. President Trump narrowly lost both seats, but these results show these areas split their tickets and respond to local records.
When the presidential vote and Assembly vote diverge even slightly, as they did here, it signals opportunity for both parties. Control of the Assembly can hinge on a few hundred votes in these districts.
The two incumbent records reveal different approaches to the same fiscal questions. Ryan Spaude voted against the state budget, but then supported the surplus deal that followed. Ben Franklin voted for both measures. As affordability continues to be the issue at the center of the public, these votes will undoubtable be brought up by both sides.
Republican’s losing either district in the next election could hand Democrats the Speaker’s gavel or force constant negotiation from a weakened position. AD 88 and 89 now function as tough tests of whether Republicans can hold the line or whether Democrats can expand their map into suburban areas around Green Bay. However, if Democrats lose either of these seats, their likelihood of a majority vanishes. These are must win seats if they want any chance at legislative power.
Candidate quality will decide the outcome and both challengers seem poised to make a good argument to voters why they deserve to win. Republican Bobby Lindsey is a Marine veteran and former law enforcement professional which decided to challenge Rep. Spaude. He previously ran for Green Bay Common Council District 12 in 2024. Democrat Brandy Tollefson will challenge Rep. Franklin as a working mom of three who currently serves as Treasurer on the De Pere School Board.
Another thing to watch for is the overlap messaging in these districts. Undoubtedly, voters in both district will be bombarded with ads for both races. Both parties cannot afford to not be competitive on the air as there may be opportunities to hurt both races simultaneously. Huge opportunity for a 2 for 1 deal, if done properly.
Regardless, Green Bay has the opportunity to either fulfill or dash the hopes of either party in just two races.
