The Democratic Party of Wisconsin hosts its annual state convention this weekend in the heart of the state’s progressive movement—Madison, WI. While last month’s Republican Party convention was a unifying event, culminating with the unanimous endorsement of Congressman Tom Tiffany to be the Republican nominee for Governor, the Democrat convention is expected to be more contentious–with seven Democrat candidates currently vying to be the party’s nominee for Governor this August.
Unlike the Republican Party of Wisconsin, the Democratic Party does not endorse candidates at their state convention. Candidates are given time to address the audience, filled with party insiders and grassroots activists from across the state, and make their pitch for why they should be the nominee come August. Despite the lack of a formal endorsement, some Democrat insiders are hoping that this weekend’s convention will serve as the catalyst for a deep field of candidates to begin to narrow.
While convention attendees will not be able to endorse a candidate at the convention itself, they will =be able to vote in the Democrat Gubernatorial Primary straw poll, hosted by WisPolitics. While the straw poll itself is not necessarily indicative of how Democrat primary voters will cast their ballots in August, it can provide helpful insights as to who the grassroots activists and party establishment is rallying behind headed into the summer.
Here are four key things to watch for in this weekend’s straw poll:
Does Francesca Hong Sink or Swim?
Francesca Hong has been, by far, the biggest surprise of this year’s Democrat field for Governor. What started as a long shot campaign that was widely panned by political pundits, Hong has generated organic buzz for her race through grassroots organizing, creative use of social media, and an uncanny ability to generate earned media.
To the shock of many, Hong has continued to punch above her weight class throughout the primary, leading in the past three Marquette Law School polls and finding herself at the front of a crowded primary field. Hong’s rise has set off alarm bells for many establishment Democrats, who worry that someone who openly identifies as a Socialist and has advocated for radical positions like abolishing the police and a world without prisons would be unelectable in the Midwest’s ultimate swing state. While DSA-backed candidates have found success in liberal bastions like New York City and Seattle, Wisconsin is a different animal entirely. In recent weeks, we have started to see the knives come out against Hong–making it clear that the Party insiders do not want to see her as the nominee. Despite this, Hong has pressed on, and her supporters have only become more emboldened.
All eyes will be on Hong this weekend, especially in the DPW straw poll. A strong performance will only solidify her as an increasingly viable candidate amongst the Democrat field. A poor performance may be used by party insiders to cast further doubt on her credibility, especially to big money donors.
Hong has built an expansive and dedicated volunteer network, claiming that she has gotten more than 5,000 individuals to volunteer for the campaign. The question is: How aggressive has Hong’s campaign been in getting those volunteers to sign up as party members so they can attend the Madison convention and vote for the Socialist insurgent candidate?
If she has been able to convert those volunteers into delegates, she should run away with the straw poll. But it’s also incredibly possible that Hong, who has run as an anti-establishment candidate since launching her run, has not placed a high premium on appealing to the insider-heavy convention audience.
Convention speakers are set to address the crowd on the Sunday of convention. Once the convention ends, Hong has scheduled a rally eight minutes away from the Monona Terrace featuring progressive kingmaker and potential 2028 presidential candidate Ro Khanna, as well as former Illinois Congressional candidate Kat Abughazaleh and activist Qasim Rashid.
This is a smart play by Hong, given that her team will be more likely to be able to mobilize hundreds of rabid progressives in the heart of Madison to a free rally than they would be able to get them to attend the Democrat Party convention. If she does well in the straw poll, this event will be the cherry on top of a strong weekend for the Democratic Socialist. If not, a well-attended crowd with every camera in the state just eight minutes away will strengthen her grassroots bona fides and make everyone forget about an underwhelming performance with party insiders.
Will Sara Rodriguez or David Crowley Emerge as Establishment Favorite?
Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez was the first candidate to announce her candidacy for Governor, announcing just days after Evers announced he would not be seeking a third term. Since then, Rodriguez has had to deal with several avoidable missteps, but still remains in position to capitalize on a large primary field, especially if the rumored $4 million in outside support comes to fruition.
The only other candidate seeing third-party support right now is Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who announced shortly after Rodriguez. Crowley, like Rodriguez, has faced a number of hurdles and missteps–with the most notable being a lapse in Milwaukee County’s healthcare contract which put benefits at risk for thousands of county employees, an error Rodriguez described as a “breakdown in leadership.”
Both candidates are widely viewed as favorites of the Democrat donor class and party establishment. Despite that support, neither has gained significant traction in a primary electorate that has drifted further to the left, increasingly favoring candidates like Hong and Barnes over establishment-backed contenders such as Rodriguez and Crowley.
As Democrats scramble to find an alternative candidate to Hong and Barnes, conventional wisdom suggests that the handpicked candidate of the Democrat establishment will be either Crowley or Rodriguez–but they will have a harder time pulling off their primary coup if both stay in.
This weekend’s straw poll could be an opportunity for the Democrat establishment to tip their hand and reveal who their preferred candidate is. A strong showing in the poll would give either candidate a good data point to pitch to donors as they attempt to climb back into the race, while a poor showing could leave a candidate without a clear path forward and cause them to take stock of their own prospects.
Is Mandela Barnes Still the Candidate to Beat?
Mandela Barnes entered this race as an early frontrunner, with polling consistently showing him as the only candidate with widespread name recognition, stemming from his four years as Lt. Governor and his 2022 Senate bid. But not all of that name ID is good. Voters still remember the negative ads and controversial positions that came back to haunt Barnes in his effort to oust Senator Ron Johnson four years ago. Before even entering the race, The Milwaukee Courier–a prominent black-owned newspaper–wrote a scathing piece cautioning voters against another Mandela Barnes bid for higher office.
Despite this, Barnes has consistently been amongst the top two candidates in the field since entering the race in most polls, due in large part to his substantial familiarity advantage. But Barnes has run a very subtle campaign thus far, attempting to moderate his tone and put more distance between himself and his ill-fated Senate campaign four years ago. While this strategy may be a smart way to position himself for the general election, it has caused him to bleed some progressive grassroots support in the primary. That, coupled with the electability concerns surrounding his last failed bid for higher office, have opened a lane for other candidates–with Francesca Hong being the biggest benefactor.
With so many options in this year’s primary field, it’s hard to gauge where the party insiders are at with Barnes. While some Democrats openly speculate about Barnes’s electability in November, others will see his more measured and disciplined approach this time around to be a sign that he is finally ready for primetime and they may view him as a more palatable alternative to Hong.
But where do convention attendees stand on him? The grassroots activist base of the party seems to have shifted from Barnes to Hong, while the establishment lane tends to prefer Rodriguez or Crowley whom they view as safer general election candidates.
Barnes doesn’t need to win the straw poll this weekend–he still has the most name ID of any candidate in the race and a large donor network built up from his previous run for higher office. But he cannot afford a poor performance. Anything outside the top two would be disappointing for Barnes. Anything below third place could only cause those doubts to grow louder and present an opening to someone else.
Can Lightning Strike Twice for Kelda Roys?
If you’re looking for a candidate to play spoiler this weekend, that candidate might just be Kelda Roys. Roys first planted the seeds that she intended to run for Governor, months before Evers made his decision on seeking a third term. Despite all of the personal (and borderline shameless) ambition that we have seen from Roys, her campaign has fallen completely flat.
The progressive State Senator from the Isthmus was hoping to be the anti-establishment grassroots darling of the primary field, but was quickly squeezed out of that lane when Francesca Hong announced her run for Governor days later. Since then, Roys has struggled to gain consistent traction in the deep primary field–polling at just 1% in the most recent Marquette Law School Poll.
To the surprise of many, Kelda Roys received the endorsement from the state’s largest teachers union, WEAC, a constituency that has long been a centerpiece of the Democratic Party and helped carry Tony Evers to victory in the 2018 primary. While Roys hoped that this endorsement would provide her with the necessary boost to get back into the race, her momentary resurgence was short-lived and she has since fallen back down the card.
The State Convention may be her last chance to get back into this race. The convention is being held at the Monona Terrace, in the heart of her Senate district. If there was any place where the WEAC endorsement and Roys’s brand of progressive politics and legislative experience would play well, it would be there.
And most importantly, she’s had success here before. In 2018, while running in a similarly crowded primary against eventual nominee and Governor Tony Evers, Roys pulled off a shocking upset in the Democrat Party’s convention straw poll, earning 23.3% of support from the delegates in attendance despite only polling at .3% in the most recent Marquette Poll. This surprising result gave Roys genuine momentum that she was able to parlay into significant earned media and some fundraising appeals that helped elevate her from irrelevancy to a legitimate contender.
While the momentum ultimately dissipated by the time the primary rolled around (Roys would finish third with only 12.8% of the vote), she likely would not have even been in that position were it not for the shot in the arm she received from winning the DPW straw poll at convention.
Roys is hoping for a similar outcome this time around. While winning the poll outright may be too ambitious, a strong showing could give her the momentum needed to fight on for a few more weeks. But if her straw poll results match the 1% she continues to receive in the more scientific polling being conducted, she might need some Keldacare to heal those wounds.
