Republicans enter the 2026 cycle with a 54-45 majority in the Wisconsin State Assembly. That edge is real but narrow enough that losing just a handful of seats hands Democrats the gavel. The 2024 election proved the map is tighter after redistricting. Several races came down to a few thousand votes or less. Democrats need gains in these exact districts to flip the chamber, while also defending their incumbents.
Most of these districts were decided by hundreds of votes or a political razor’s edge. These are the precise battlegrounds that will determine whether the 54-45 majority holds.
Assembly District 21 has Republican Dylan Pfaffenbach challenging Democrat Dan Bukiewicz or Democrat Socialist David Liners in the Oak Creek area. The seat went Republican in 2024 by under three points after redistricting. Pfaffenbach has an uphill climb after popular incumbent Jesse Rodriguez retired, but depending who wins the Democrat primary, it could get interesting. Currently viewed as Lean Democrat.
Assembly District 26 has Republican’s John Belanger, Tyler Schneekloth, and James Brotz against Democratic incumbent Joe Sheehan. Sheehan won the open seat in 2024 by less than three points. His record as a former school district superintendent plays well with moderate voters and makes this a tough race for any of the Republicans. Currently viewed as Lean Democrat.
Assembly District 30 keeps Republican incumbent Shannon Zimmerman against Democrat Kevin Knoke. Zimmerman has held this River Falls area seat through multiple cycles. The district leans slightly Republican, and a feel known incumbent gives Republicans a strong start. Currently viewed as Lean Republican.
Assembly District 51 has Republican Todd Novak defending against Democrat Ben Gruber and independent Nathan Tataje. Novak won by under four points in 2024 in this Democratic-leaning district. His brand and record on local issues remain his best assets that has kept in the legislature. However, the independent makes it too early to have an opinion. Currently viewed as Toss Up.
Assembly District 53 is open after Dean Kaufert retired. Republican David Daniels faces Democrat Becky Nichols and independent Rachael Dowling. The 2024 margin was just over one point Republican. This was a tough seat for well-known Kaufert in a Trump high-turn out year. Could prove difficult to make up an incumbent advantage, but open seats can be a wild card. Currently viewed as Lean Democrat.
Assembly District 61 keeps Republican Bob Donovan in a narrow 2024 win of just over three points. He faces Democrats Ben Brist, Brian Bock, and Lawanda Chambers in the primary. Similar to the Assembly District 21 situation, this primary could vastly alter the outcome of the race. Will the suburbs continue to move left or do they final revert? Currently viewed as Lean Republican.
Assembly District 85 has Republican incumbent Pat Snyder against Democrat John Kroll. Snyder won by more than six points in 2024. The district represents an interesting Wausau area which can be lean Republican, yet any drop in turnout or weak messaging could put it into play. Currently viewed as Lean Republican.
Assembly District 88 has Republican Ben Franklin against Democrat Brandy Tollefson. Franklin won the open seat by under one point in 2024. Although Franklin’s incumbency does matter, this district was so close that a mere couple hundred votes is not enough to give a strong indication one way or another. Currently viewed as Toss Up.
Assembly District 89 pits Republican Bobby Lindsey against Democratic incumbent Ryan Spaude. Spaude won the open seat in 2024 by under three points. The sister district to the 88th makes these two Green Bay seats some of the closest races in the state. I have a hunch that unlike 2024, these districts go as a pair and won’t be a split decision. Currently viewed as Toss Up.
Assembly District 92 has Republican Clint Moses against Democrat Jeremiah Fredrickson and independent Mel Marin. Moses won by more than six points last cycle. The Menomonie area has competitive streaks, but Moses has shown he can hold and expand support. This race is not impossible for Democrats, but seems to be a reach as of now. Currently viewed as Lean Republican.
Assembly District 94 is the only Democratic-held seat on this list in which Trump also won the district. Incumbent Steve Doyle faces Republican Keith Purnell. Doyle survived 2024 by just under one point and continues to hang on despite changing voter trends in that Congressional seat. Doyle is the last Democrat with the classic blue dog optics that is all about gone, yet he remains. Currently viewed as Lean Democrat.
The majority is not automatic. It is earned one district at a time. These are the districts that will decide it.
