We are less than two weeks out from Primary Election Day 2026 here in Wisconsin, and we are providing a detailed analysis of where the race to be the Democrat nominee for governor stands as we see it. We are going to look at real-time metrics and trends you cannot see with the naked eye, and share insider intelligence you won’t get from the mainstream media or biased talking points.
While everyone online has an opinion and loves to tell you how brilliant they are, we hope to give you something different – an analysis grounded in data and logical thinking, not hyperbole or wishful thinking.
Can’t start an analysis like this without addressing the obvious. We have been doing this for a while, and we can honestly say that we have never seen a race like this before. Never.
The in-fighting, the back-stabbing, the ‘I’m dropping out, but now I’m back in’ drama, the self-destruction and implosion of one of the frontrunners, Sara Rodriquez, the ‘I’m Governor Evers, I can’t possibly endorse, but now I need to endorse Dirt McGirk with just days to go…
All of it. Every last glorious second of it, and we still have days left to go.
If you are a Republican, you cannot literally believe your eyes or your luck. Tom Tiffany has been left largely untouched, almost unnoticed, by the Dem machine and its allies because Party insiders and mega donors have been trying so hard to quietly snuff out Francesca Hong’s rise before she inevitably emerges in the Democrat primary.
At the outset, we would like to point out a couple of things to keep in mind that could yet have an impact on this race.
The Debate
This past Tuesday, the Democrat nominees came together for the one and only televised debate. Better late than never, we guess. The practical problem with a debate this late in the process is that if one of the candidates breaks through somehow or if, more likely, one of the frontrunners makes a catastrophic blunder, there is precious little time remaining in the race to seize upon that opportunity or get the word out to primary voters. The lateness of the debate clearly favors the frontrunner.
Leading up to the debate, we had been saying for some time that Hong was the frontrunner. From our “Establishment Dems Know Francesca Hong is a Problem. They Just Don’t Know How to Stop Her” analysis:
If Hong posts another strong fundraising report, maintains her advantage in the Marquette poll, and emerges from the debate without significant damage, Democratic insiders may find themselves confronting a reality they have quietly feared for months.
The challenge facing Wisconsin Democrats has never been recognizing why Francesca Hong has become the candidate they most fear. The challenge is that, with time running short, they still haven’t found a way to stop her without strengthening the movement driving her campaign.
Which is exactly what she did leading into the debate.
At the debate, none of the candidates landed a knockout punch, and, in reality, none of the candidates chasing Hong even attempted to engage with her or to show voters that she is not the best candidate for Democrats to take on Tiffany. It was as if the other candidates did not want to win and were fine with coming in second or third.
Heartland’s Robin Vos Stan is exactly right:
Francesca Hong walked into that stage last night and walked out looking like the only adult in the room who understood the assignment. Everyone else treated the Democratic primary for governor like a polite book club meeting. They nodded, they agreed, they recited the same progressive catechism, and they left Hong completely unchallenged. If you are her campaign, you are popping champagne. If you are anyone else on that stage, you should be updating your LinkedIn (#opentonetwork).
Read Robin Vos Stan’s full analysis here – Democrats Forgot How to Fight.
Or watch Heartland’s NFC live stream and instant commentary of the debate here.
You really should watch Hong on stage, under the bright lights, with competition and forced to answer questions. You can learn a lot about a person when she is under pressure.
All the candidates on stage seemed preoccupied, maybe even obsessed, with making sure they regurgitated their memorized 30-second campaign quip rather than actually thinking about the question asked, speaking from their heart, or addressing what was asked.
Even though Hong won the debate solely because the other candidates failed to throw even one punch, she still did not have a good night.
The moderators from WISN Ch 12, Matt Smith and Gerron Jordan, to their credit, asked detailed questions about her positions and past public statements, like abolishing the US Senate or defunding the police. She somewhat artfully dodged answering the question or tried to now suddenly change her position, but it didn’t work. First, she will now answer questions (Hong Dodges DSA Extremism in Debate After Denying Her Own “Abolish the Senate“) from her rabid base that not only wants her to defund the police but actually abolish, or do away with, local police departments. Suddenly now, after the base has fought so long and so hard for her, she declares on TV that she does not believe in defunding the police?
(Abolish the Senate) https://x.com/heartlandpostwi/status/2082098856519504051?s=61
(Calvi pressing Hong on defund the police) https://x.com/jasoncalvi/status/2082310155446686149?s=61
It was noticeable, too, that Hong was thrown off, annoyed, and nervous any time she was asked a follow-up question or asked for specifics when answering, rather than her accustomed amorphous, meaningless platitudes. She tended to look down at the floor when she was forced to think about her words, which did not inspire confidence. She is clearly not very good at thinking on her feet or going off script.
Maybe her team can manage her like Biden so she only reads off a teleprompter or she only speaks with fellow socialist devotees like her horrific fanboy Hassan Piker. Considering Hong likes to think of herself as a ‘populist’ candidate, it would look strange if she suddenly restricted her availability or refused to talk to the press in an attempt to avoid legitimate questions about her beliefs and policy views.
Now on to other metrics:
Early Voting
Early In-person absentee voting started this week. Few people realize that absentee mail voting has been going on for some time and that over 95,000 votes have already been cast in this race. In a primary race, 95,000 votes are a lot.
For comparison purposes, let’s look at the number of Democrat votes needed to win a statewide primary race like this one. Tony Evers won the competitive 2018 Democrat primary election for governor with roughly 225,000 votes, out of a total 538,636 votes cast in that race. Gov. Evers won that primary with over 41% of the votes; quickly forgotten Mitchell was a distant second with 16% of the vote, and Kelda Roys was third with almost 13%. Back in ’22, Mandela Barnes won the Democrat primary with approximately 390,000 votes, out of a total 501,760 votes cast. Now, one must remember that the Democrat Party had forced or bribed Barnes’ opponents to suddenly drop out just weeks before the election, so his 390,000-vote total is higher than it would have been and is considered an outlier. So let’s go back to the Evers’ race in 2018; let’s stipulate that interest among Democrats is higher in this race and round up to 575,000 votes as an approximate turnout estimate.
So 95,000 votes cast (yes, we know not every one of the 95,000 will vote in the Democrat primary) out of a target 287,000 votes (roughly 50% of the total) means that almost 33% of a winning vote coalition has already been cast before the debate, before the Rodriguez implosion, the Dirk Crowley comeback, and before any closing arguments were made.
The Polling
On Wednesday, the Marquette Law School published an emergency poll meant to gauge the reaction and movement among Dem voters after Sara Rodriguez, one of the frontrunners at the time, dropped out of the race unexpectedly. This Marquette poll is a rush job with only a small amount of time out in the field to reach real Democrat primary voters, so it’s not as robust as a normal Marquette poll.
Not surprisingly, this last major poll before Election Day, August 11, shows Hong with an overwhelming and growing lead.
Socialist Rep. Francesca Hong has opened a commanding lead in the Democratic primary for governor, according to a new Marquette University Law School Poll released Wednesday.
The survey of 407 Democratic primary voters, conducted July 22-27, shows Hong at 38%, followed by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 16% and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley at 7%. Former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan and state Sen. Kelda Roys each registered 2%. Thirty-four percent of respondents remain undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 6.6 percentage points.
When undecided voters indicated a preference, Hong’s support increased to 46%, Barnes’s to 21%, and Crowley’s to 11%.
Hong Surges to 38% in New Marquette Poll, Cementing Frontrunner Status
Most importantly for Hong, this latest poll was another positive data point in a trend we at The Heartland Post noticed a while back, one that the rest of the mainstream media had missed.
Perhaps most importantly for Hong, her support appears to be remarkably durable. 72 percent of her supporters said they would not consider another candidate—the highest level of loyalty in the field. She also led every age group except voters 60 and older, building especially large margins with younger Democrats. Among voters ages 18-29, Hong led Barnes 43% to 14%. Among those ages 30-44, she held a commanding 37% to 12% advantage. While younger voters have historically been a less-reliable voting block, they have also been the demographic that has powered DSA-backed victories around the country.
Marquette Law School Poll: Winners and Losers
So, if the polling trend suggests that Hong is running away with it weeks before primary day, there is a very good chance that Hong is dominating the mail-in voting and the early in-person absentee voting. Hong could have already built an insurmountable lead in votes that the other candidates will not be able to overcome.
Now, while all of this is very good for Hong and her chances of securing the nomination, dark storm clouds loom ahead for her and her party in the November election.
While Hong continues to expand her lead in the Democratic primary, the Democratic Socialist brand remains deeply unpopular with the broader Wisconsin electorate. That’s exactly why the Democratic establishment is panicking. Their fear isn’t that Hong can’t win a Democratic primary—it’s that they know she can, and likely will.
When asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Socialists of America, just 24% of respondents viewed the organization favorably compared to 43% who viewed it unfavorably, a net -18 rating. The broader “Democratic Socialist” label performed even worse, with just 25% holding a favorable opinion compared to 55% unfavorable—a staggering net -30.
Take a second to let that sink in – a minus 30! The average Wisconsinite wants nothing to do with a Democratic Socialist or a candidate who identifies herself as one. Remember how Hong cheered and leaped around when Mandani in New York won? It will be difficult for her to now say, I am not a Democrat Socialist, after all this time cheerleading for the brand that many in Wisconsin cannot stand. She will try, but it will be difficult.
Now, when our crack analysts at The Heartland Post found this next polling nugget, I did not believe it.
To put those numbers in perspective, Democratic Socialists are less popular than both President Trump and the MAGA movement, which each posted a net -19 favorability rating. They are also less popular than the Democratic Party itself, which sits underwater at -23. The only thing tested in the Marquette Poll that performed worse than Democratic Socialism was data centers, which came in at a net -54.
The numbers become even more problematic when broken down by political affiliation. Independent voters gave the Democratic Socialist label a net -39 favorability rating—significantly worse than MAGA’s -31 among the same group. Among Republicans, Democratic Socialism is almost universally rejected, posting a staggering net -83 rating.
Maybe this will break down into a hate vs. hate election. Remember, hate is a strong motivator. Very strong. The extreme libs in this state that have Trump Derangement Syndrome vs. a conservative/independent coalition that will fight to keep the country and the state that we love. More on that later.
For now, here is how this disdain for socialism is impacting the race in practical terms – enthusiasm. Enthusiasm in today’s politics is vitally important.
The overwhelming disdain for Democratic Socialism has likely contributed to Republicans closing the enthusiasm gap in this most recent poll, with 79% of Republicans saying they are certain to vote compared to 84% of Democrats.
Donations need to be made, doors knocked, yard signs driven to every corner of the state, and turnout calls dialed to hit your vote total; all should be done by an enthusiastic base and volunteers. No matter the reason the enthusiastic volunteer or team member got involved, the fact that Republicans are just as excited as the Democrats bodes well for Team Tiffany and all the other Republicans running this fall.
The Money
While we have already analyzed the Team Republican vs. Team Democrat fundraising numbers, here we will focus in on just the Democrats and what it means for the August 11th primary election.
The July Continuing Finance Report showed that Mandela Barnes led the field with $841,000 raised in 2026 but just $200,000 cash on hand. Surprisingly, the next-biggest haul went to Francesca Hong, with just over $700,000 raised in 2026 and just over $400,000 in cash on hand. Brennan is next with $665,000 raised in 2026 and $359,000 cash on hand. Kelda Roys raised $527,000 over the same period and had $406,000 cash on hand. Crowley, who had suspended his campaign weeks earlier, raised about $250,000 in the first six months of the year, spent almost $540,000 over that same time period, and entered July with $315,000 cash on hand.
Two things stand out here. One, all the Democrat candidates raised a similar amount of money. Which means the Dem voting base and the Democrats who truly care about their party so much that they donate their own money do not have a consensus candidate or think there is one candidate who is heads and shoulders better than all the others. If Barnes, let’s say, had swamped all other candidates in terms of money raised, we might have had a real race on our hands.
Two, Hong’s number is surprising given that she is supposedly not courting the Dem Party’s mega Pritzker/Hoffman donors or even the wealthy Wisconsin-based bourgeoisie. Considering Hong wants to jack up the state’s top income tax rate to 17%, maybe it is not that surprising. Our current top rate of 7.65% is already among the highest in the nation, and, truth be told, Wisconsin has one of the most progressive tax systems in the country. The way Hong lies about our tax system, you would think we have a flat tax. We think that Largess Pritzker and ‘Epstein Island’ Hoffman will end up giving millions to Hong and the Democrats because they desperately crave absolute power. The question is what will wealthy Democrat Wisconsinites do? Are they part of the establishment that is so desperately trying to take Hong out before she wins the nomination, or will they rally behind her when she wins and donate their money to Hong even though she loathes them and all their success?
Here, too, there are troubling warning signs for the Democrats on the horizon. As we wrote previously, Don’t Look Now, Mainstream Media: Wisconsin Republicans Had a Really Good Week, Team Republican is winning the fundraising race this cycle. One need only look back at the most recent State Supreme Court race to realize how important this is. While many Republicans claimed to support Judge Maria Lazar, few actually stepped up to donate to her, and she had no chance of defeating Taylor. Republican donors seem excited this time about the governor’s race and the general importance of this election.
Will The Dem Infighting Impact Unity and Enthusiasm?
While it was strange to watch the candidates on stage leave each other largely alone, there has been plenty of back-stabbing, online attacks, and social media sniping to suggest that Democrats will not be unified coming out of the primary vote, no matter who wins.
Even though we would normally start with a rundown of the endorsements that each candidate has received, we are going to start with the one endorsement that matters in Wisconsin Democrat politics. Well, it should matter. Apparently it doesn’t matter much at all. Emperor Evers and Dictator Gau’s attempt to force Democrats to vote for their preferred candidate Crowley did not go over well. Many online are accusing Evers of trying to be a kingmaker. Set aside how amateurish and poorly executed their attempt was; the Dem Party base does not like to be told by the elites who they should vote for, especially when that base believes that they have a perfectly fine candidate already picked out in their heads. For example. Bernie voters when Dems rigged the primary for Clinton. Dem voters when the few swapped Kamala in for Biden at the last second. Hong supporters when Crowley had dropped out and then he was resurrected after Rodriguez imploded.
For one of Wisconsin’s all-time favorite politicians, Gov. Evers, to endorse in an important, competitive race like this, and for that endorsement to have almost no impact on the race, is staggering. According to the flash Marquette poll, over 60% of Democrat primary voters said that the governor’s endorsement had no impact or actually had a negative impact on their pick of a candidate. Ouch. I guess Tony will silently slip into retirement since today’s Dem base apparently could care less what he thinks.
Even though Hong will win, her supporters will not forget what Evers and the Party tried to pull at the last second. And die-hard Evers supporters, no matter how small that faction is today, will not fully invest in Hong after their beloved leader told them to back someone else. All this adds up to a fractured and unhappy Democrat coalition as they head into the home stretch of a critical election.
And while Evers’s public faux pas has been front and center lately, there has been plenty of infighting behind the scenes and online. The DSA vs. the Dem establishment. Hong’s staff, Nada, vs. long-term Dem talker Sly. Sly vs. Evers. Online liberal Moms vs. Evers. Online liberal Moms vs. the establishment. Everyone going after Crowley’s Dirt McGirk horrible tweets. The Hong can’t-beat-Tiffany crowd vs. Hong is the only one who can beat the Tiffany crowd.
The infighting online within the Democratic Party
While the impact of social media is often overstated, if you look at what is going on online right now, it is a consistent, ongoing inter-party fight. Sometimes it is cordial, sometimes it is nasty name-calling full of profanity. Anyone who has worked a contentious primary fight will tell you, despite the predictable unity breakfast after the vote and the fake calls for everyone to come together in November, it NEVER works out that way. NEVER. It’s basic human nature and also goes to how badly these partisans want to win within their party. They always come away with hurt feelings, doubts about their party’s future, and a reluctance to go all in for the candidate they did not want.
In practical terms, the bruising fight could directly negatively affect a Wisconsin campaign mainstay – knocking on doors. While the Hong campaign recently bragged that it was approaching 100,000 doors knocked, that trails the Tiffany campaign and Team Republican by a lot. It will be hard to catch up and compete with the other side when the Democrats are splintered.
In the end, this metric may be the one that proves the difference between the Tiffany and Hong races this fall. Republicans unanimously support Tiffany, and Democrats are having a genuine, contentious fight over who will be the party’s nominee. And the fight on the left may be bigger than just this race; the fight looks to be for the very soul of the Dem Party itself.
Verdict
As we have laid out here in painstaking detail, Francesca Hong is the clear frontrunner in the Democrat Primary. We can find no metric or trend suggesting anyone is close enough to pull an upset. With early ballots already in and the rest of the field refusing to throw a real punch, her nomination is effectively locked. Come August 12, Wisconsin Democrats will own the consequences of handing the ticket to a candidate with a philosophy the broader electorate has deep reservations about.
